November 3, 2020 | International, Aerospace, Naval, Land, C4ISR, Security
By: Joe Gould
WASHINGTON ― Anyone will tell you this is the most important election in U.S. history ― unless they happen to run a major American defense firm.
In earnings call after earnings call, defense industry executives projected calm ahead of Tuesday's election, mainly because they see the coronavirus pandemic carrying greater uncertainty (especially for firms with commercial aviation businesses). But another reason is that, despite wide projections of flat 2021 defense budgets no matter who controls the White House, industry is confident in the Pentagon's commitment to modernization.
“We continue to believe that bipartisan support for defense spending will endure and that our portfolio is well-aligned to support our National Defense Strategy,” Northrop Grumman CEO Kathy Warden said in remarks typical of third-quarter earnings calls last week. “While we plan for various budget scenarios, defense spending is largely threat-driven and today's threat environment warrants a strong defense. Emerging threats are intensifying, and we believe both political parties are committed to effectively countering these threats.”
If defense firms are upbeat, then Wall Street seems skeptical, with pure-play defense firms down this year and lagging the stock market, said Capital Alpha Partners' aerospace and defense analyst Byron Callan. Partisan gridlock, he noted, is what led to the budget caps that bedeviled federal budgeting for the last decade.
“You could argue that some of this underperformance is related to concerns about what the election's outcome could be. Even if the president wins, no one's predicting the House will flip, and then you'll still have gridlock in Congress,” Callan said. “Let's say there's a 50-50 split in the Senate. Things can get pretty sporty.”
Defense executives were comfortable making warm predictions about 2021, but the lack of comment about 2022 and 2023 was telling, said Callan. Also, Pentagon officials have warned they will have to tap modernization and readiness funds if Congress does not appropriate about $10 billion for defense contractors' coronavirus-related expenses.
So why didn't any CEOs use their earnings calls to amplify that message? “That was one of the dogs that didn't bark here. Either industry doesn't see it as an issue, or that it's inevitable it's not going to happen," Callan said.
With Democrats readying to debate steep defense cuts if they sweep the election, the expectation is that swollen national deficits ― driven by pandemic aid and Republican-led tax cuts ― will pressure the defense budget downward. But industry is banking on Washington's drive to prepare militarily for a rising China, a disruptive Russia and an unpredictable North Korea.
“Whether it's flat with a little bit of rise or flat with a little bit of fall may depend on the election, but I think that's a fairly narrow space you're working in politically, given the deficit and the threat vectors,” Bill Lynn, the CEO of defense and aerospace conglomerate Leonardo DRS, said in an interview. Lynn is a former deputy defense secretary and Raytheon lobbyist.
Though there's been speculation Democrats would cut defense spending, former vice president Joe Biden, who is running against Republican President Donald Trump, would face pressure not to for economic and political reasons, said Michael Herson, president and chief executive at American Defense International, a defense lobbying firm. (Biden has said, if elected, he doesn't foresee major defense cuts.)
“The first thing that Biden's going to worry about is COVID and the economic recovery,” Herson said in an interview. “So do you really want to touch defense spending, and add to your economic woes ― because it increases unemployment ― in the first year of your presidency?”
Defense Secretary Mark Esper has warned that a flat budget will force the armed services to make budgetary trade-offs and likely cuts to legacy programs. But the Pentagon has also communicated a commitment to modernization, and that's part of industry's confidence.
In September, Northrop won a $13.3 billion award for the Ground Based Strategic Deterrent program, the U.S. Air Force's effort to replace the LGM-30G Minuteman III intercontinental ballistic missile. But some Democrats have attempted to defund it, and investors grilled executives about the program's post-election survival prospects ― and those of Northrop's B-21 Raider.
Warden, Northrop's CEO, argued the nuclear triad becomes more of a budgetary priority when conventional military forces are under pressure.
“So we're confident that a new administration would recognize that value and continue to support the modernization efforts that are well underway for both GBSD and B-21,” she said.
The Pentagon over recent years has oriented itself toward technological competition with China, with related investments in artificial intelligence, next-generation networks, cybersecurity and space. Companies did not see signs of that momentum reversing.
“The government doesn't pivot on a dime,” Booz Allen Hamilton's chief financial officer, Lloyd Howell Jr., told investors. “And a lot of the programs that we currently support ... are increasingly tied to their missions, which is politically agnostic.”
The CEO of infrared imaging maker FLIR Systems, Jim Cannon, acknowledged there will be “top-line pressure on the budget ... no matter what happens with the election,” but he put stock in Army leaders' assurances that the service must remedy long-underfunded modernization efforts.
“The message that was sent out to industry loud and clear is that, after four decades largely without significant modernization transformation, now is the time,” Cannon said. “And if we look at the priorities that we're aligned against and the work that we've been doing for the past two years, we think we're well positioned there. But look: I agree there's a lot of uncertainty, a lot of work yet for us to do, but that's our perspective right now.”
When asked, L3Harris downplayed how a drawdown from Afghanistan ― which Trump and Biden both favor ― or hypothetical cuts to end strength would impact the sales of radios or night vision goggles.
“We're not even 40 percent through the modernization ramp with radio. So even if end strength comes down, as I expect it likely will, I don't think it's going to affect the growth rate in our radio business,” said CEO Bill Brown, arguing that night vision goggles and radios had “under-penetrated the force.”
“So if anything, reduced end strength might actually free up some dollars to be put onto modernization investments that really affect a broad part of our business,” he added.
Executives at companies without a stake in a specific major platform had a good story to tell, and several pointed to investments in cybersecurity or artificial intelligence. Leonardo DRS' Lynn said the firm's investments in communications, sensors and computing systems had made it “ambidextrous."
"We can go in any direction,” he said. “The larger companies have greater exposure across the breadth of the defense budget. We're more in targeted areas and haven't got broad exposure.
“We're in Army sensors, satellite communications; we're in 10 or 12 segments. We can be targeted, and frankly in a flat budget environment, that ability to target's important to grow at all.”
July 15, 2022 | International, Aerospace
Alors qu'un premier pilote de chasse du 388th Fighter Wing vient de passer le cap des 1000 heures de vol sur F-35A, les responsables du Pentagone ont retardé l'approbation de la production à taux plein du chasseur de Lockheed Martin. Car depuis 2017, un essai de simulation vient gâcher la fête.
December 1, 2022 | International, Naval
Officials hope to gain operational advantages for securing the ocean floors by pairing submarines and unmanned undersea vessels.
July 4, 2019 | International, Aerospace, C4ISR
By: Nathan Strout The Defense Department's next generation space architecture would consist of several layers based around a mesh network of small communications satellites, according to a document released by the Space Development Agency July 1. A request for information lays out an early outline of what that new satellite architecture would look like and how the commercial sector can contribute to the effort. The SDA is a new entity that the Pentagon established less than four months ago as part of the Trump administration's focus on reorganizing the military's space structure. The agency's initial goal is to develop a next generation space architecture for military satellites in the face of near-peer adversaries' growing interest in space. “In an era of renewed great power competition with an emergent China and a resurgent Russia, maintaining our advantage in space is critical to winning these long-term strategic competitions,” read a request for information posted to the Federal Business Opportunities web site. “These potential adversaries are developing and demonstrating multi-domain threats to national security much faster than we can deploy responsive, space-based capabilities.” The agency wants the new architecture to provide eight essential capabilities identified in a 2018 Pentagon report. In addition, the Pentagon wants to include development of deterrent capability, space situational awareness, a resilient common ground-based space support infrastructure, command and control systems and artificial intelligence-enabled global surveillance. The Space Development Agency's notional architecture is made up of several layers, each of which would contribute to at least one of the eight essential capabilities. They include: A space transport layer: A global mesh network providing 24/7 data and communications. A tracking layer: Provides tracking, targeting and advanced warning of missile threats. A custody layer: Provides “all-weather custody of all identified time-critical targets.” A deterrence layer: Provides space situational awareness—detecting and tracking objects in space to help satellites avoid collisions. A navigation layer: Provides alternative positioning, navigation and timing services in case GPS is blocked or unavailable. A battle management layer: A command, control and communications network augmented by artificial intelligence that provides self-tasking, self-prioritization, on-board processing and dissemination. A support layer: Ground command and control facilities and user terminals, as well as rapid-response launch services. The SDA's immediate goal is the development of a transport layer consisting of a mesh network for communications and data in low earth orbit. As the agency has stated previously, that effort will rely heavily on DARPA's Blackjack program - a project that will establish an initial transport layer with a 20 satellite constellation. The SDA wants to build sub-constellations around the Blackjack program to meet some of the needs it has identified, such as missile defense warnings and targeting, alternative positioning, navigation and timing services, and more. The constellation and associated sub-constellations will be made up of small mass-produced satellites in the agency's vision, ranging from 50 to 500kg. The next-generation space architecture posting is the first request for information that the agency has posted in its brief existence, and sets a tone for what it's looking for from the commercial sector. Specifically, the SDA wants to know what capabilities and concepts the commercial sector can bring to bear on satellite buses, payloads, appliques and launches. Any proposal should fall into at least one of the suggested layers, the SDA stated. “SDA intends to leverage investments made by the private sector in space capabilities (...), as well as industry best practices (e.g., mass production techniques for spacecraft buses, sensors, and user terminals),” stated the agency. Among other things, the agency wants proposals for the following items: Small and cheap payloads that can provide high-bandwidth links between satellites; software that can track missiles from low earth orbit; software that can facilitate autonomous space sensor collection, processing and dissemination, and alternative methods for positioning, navigation and timing in case GPS is unavailable. In addition, the SDA wants feedback on the overall structure of its notional architecture. The SDA is also interested in industry concerns about data rights, security and protection, acquisition approaches and more. In building this new architecture, the SDA is clear that it wants to be agile and flexible in adapting to new technology and threats, meaning it wants to be able to integrate upgrades within two year windows. While it's not clear in the document how quickly the SDA wants to have the new architecture in place, the agency does emphasize that it is looking for efforts that can be demonstrated in less than 18 months. Responses are due on August 5. The SDA plans to hold an Industry Day to connect with the commercial sector in the near future. The document's release comes shortly on the heels of Space Development Agency Director Fred Kennedy's resignation in late June. Kennedy was the agency's first director, having been originally appointed to the position by acting Defense Secretary Patrick Shanahan when the agency was stood up March 12. Derek Tournear, the assistant director for space within the Office of the Under Secretary of Defense for Research & Engineering, was named the acting director of the agency June 24. Prior to taking the assistant director position, Tournear was the director of Harris Space and Intelligence research and development. He has also served stints at the Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity and the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency. A Department of Defense spokesperson stated that Kennedy stepping down would not change the mission of activities of the agency. All of this comes as the U.S. military has worked to revamp its efforts in space. In addition to the stand up of the SDA, the Trump administration is also pushing for the creation of Space Force, a proposed sixth branch of the military that would be housed within the Air Force. While the Senate Armed Services Committee endorsed a version of Space Force, the House Armed Services Committee proposed a Space Corps, which would not be an independent branch of the military. https://www.c4isrnet.com/battlefield-tech/2019/07/03/the-pentagons-new-space-agency-has-an-idea-about-the-future/