December 27, 2018 | International, Aerospace
To understand the future of Russia's drone program, we have to grasp its present and immediate past. While the modern era of unmanned aircraft is perhaps best typified by American Reaper drones flying missions with Hellfire missiles slung under wing, the overall picture of drones in combat has evolved and changed. The Pentagon's primacy in aerial robotics is no longer a sure thing, in part because of the waning unipolar moment and in part because building a drone capability is cheaper today than it was two decades ago.
To sort out what the past year means, to see if any of the battlefield experience from the multiple irregular wars Russia is part of has factored into drone design or force planning, C4ISRNET spoke with Samuel Bendett, an adviser at the Center for Naval Analyses and a Fellow in Russia Studies at the American Foreign Policy Council.
C4ISRNET: Bottom line up front: What's the single sentence takeaway for next year in Russian drones?
BENDETT: As Russia develops its lineup of long-range UCAVs [unmanned combat aerial vehicles], it will challenge American dominance with such technologies that Washington held for the past 17-18 years.
C4ISRNET: That's ambitious, to say the least. How is the Ministry of Defence preparing to make that challenge, and did Russia learn anything from fighting in Syria that might lead to changes in how it uses drones in 2019?
BENDETT: [The week of Dec. 17] marked a series of key announcements from the Russian Ministry of Defence about the country's growing unmanned aerial systems capabilities. Going into Syria in 2015, Russia was lacking a key combat element — the ability to hit targets quickly following their identification, one of the key functions of UCAVs around the world today. Moscow's experience in Syria underscored that point — despite fielding a large number of ISR drones that enabled Russian to be more precise in combat, the majority of targets were hit by manned aviation or manned artillery forces. Hence, the push today to field an entire lineup of strike UAVs for a diverse range of missions. Public statements by the Russian government and the military establishment also highlight the importance of unmanned systems for the country's military and its ability to wage war. Just recently, President Putin stated key propriety areas for his military in 2019 — among them was an emphasis on unmanned and robotic systems development.
C4ISRNET: What sort of drones are we seeing in that push?
BENDETT: The Ministry of Defence mentioned work on a strike version of Forpost mid-range drone. The Forpost UAV is a license copy of an Israeli “Searcher,” itself a design that is decades old at this point. Capable of distances up to 250 kilometers, it is currently Russia's longest-ranged drone. Under the earlier license agreement with Israel, this UAV could only be assembled as an ISR version. Russian military valued this particular unmanned vehicle and has long wanted to turn into something more than an extra pair of eyes in the sky.
Today, UZGA Defence enterprise is claiming that the “Russified” version of that UAV is full of Russian-made components, so that no further cooperation with Israel would be necessary. Putting a strike package on Forpost would give Russian an immediate ability to hit targets within a 250 kilometer range — in other words, giving it the ability to strike most adversary targets in Syria where Russian forces are still conducting operations. Given that Forpost itself is an older UAV model, it's likely that the Russian military will use it as a test bed to further refine its UAV manufacturing abilities, as well as to test indigenous munitions for UAV missions. It's likely that out of all UAVs listed by the MOD, this particular one will reach the Russian forces sooner than others.
C4ISRNET: What about the Orion?
BENDETT: The Ministry also named Orion UAV as another unmanned vehicle to fully see the light of day in 2019. Orion has similar characteristics to Forpost, such as range, at least as advertised at international arms expos [250 kilometers]. It is possible that its range could be extended further — current Orion versions are showcased as ISR models, but there were discussions that it could be offered for export as armed version. This particular UAV has similar design features to the ever-growing family of unmanned aerial vehicles all over the world — it bears close resemblance to the American RQ-9 Reaper, Chinese CH-4 and Ch-5 drones, as well as to the Iranian Shahed and Turkish Anka UAVs. Unlike Forpost, Orion was only recently tested, although there were rumors that it was seen in Syria, with observers possibly confusing it with the Iranian Shahed.
C4ISRNET: Are there other large drones in the works for the Ministry of Defence in 2019?
BENDETT: The Ohotnik UCAV is the most intriguing and interesting project of its kind in Russia. Originally started around 2011-2012, this UAV has also been delayed by a number of years. This fall, MOD carried out the first “taxing” test, when Ohotnik prototype was accelerated on the runway to test the engine. Next year, the Russian defense establishment is promising a test that will include a short-duration “jump”— the UCAV will rise ever so briefly above the tarmac to test its launching and landing capabilities. At this point, it is going to be heaviest and fastest UAV if and when fielded, but additional testing and evaluation will have to take place in order for this unmanned system to be fully functional. Its speed — up to 1000 km/hr — and weight — up to 20 tonnes — means that a host of aerodynamic, electronic and hi-tech issues need to be worked out.
C4ISRNET: Should we hold our breath waiting for the Ohotnik test flights?
BENDETT: Given the delays experienced with “Altius,” MOD would probably be more conservative with Ohotnik estimates. However, the very appearance of Ohotnik rising in the air — a stealthy blended-wing design — will be a powerful PR coup for the country that has lagged behind other nations like the United States, Israel and China in actual UCAV examples and combat use.
C4ISRNET: What was the Altius, and what happened with it?
BENDETT: The Altius was one of the most ambitious UAV projects in Russia — to build an indigenous drone capable of carrying up to 2.5 tonnes of cargo/equipment/weapons to a distance of 10,000 kilometers. Earlier estimates that this UAV would be fully operational by 2018 did not pan out. Delays in production, a lack of key expertise and hi-tech components meant the entire scheduled pushed “to the right” by many years.
[The week of Dec. 17] MOD promised that Altius will take to the skies next year — given the fact that Simonov actually produced a prototype that has already flown, that promise may indeed materialize. The real issue will be the quality of that test flight — whether Altius will fly as intended and with the right amount of key equipment.
C4ISRNET: How will these drones change the way Russia plans and conducts war?
BENDETT: All these UAVs — if and when fielded as planned and as advertised — will give Russia the capability to strike targets at a range anywhere form 250 kilometers and up to several thousand kilometers. This is a flexibility the Russian military has long sought — its Syrian actions depended on manned airborne assets conducting deep-strike against designated targets, which in turn depended on an extensive logistics and infrastructure to support such missions. Having the ability to launch long-range UCAVs from Russian [or Russian-allied] territory would exponentially increase MOD's ability to conduct missions in the near abroad and possibly around the world.
Of course, that would depend largely on the domestic defense sector actually delivering what was initially promised, something that some UAV projects have greatly struggled with.
C4ISRNET: Russian forces have used small drones quite a bit. Is any of that transferable to using these new, larger drones?
BENDETT: While the Russian military has gained extensive experience operating a wide range of close and short-range UAVs, and has commenced force-wide training and usage of these unmanned systems, operating the large and heavy UAVs would be a different story. This kind of technology requires different training, as well as different logistical and infrastructure support. Getting these UCAVs into the military will require a change to existing CONOPS and TTPs, something that will take time as the Russian military will need to become familiar with a different set of technological sophistication.
Still, these UAVs are finally moving past the prototype stage — with the Ministry of Defence paying very close attention to these projects, the likely 2019 appearance is guaranteed for these designs. Their eventual acquisition is still years away. Russian UCAV plans will have important implications for the way Moscow thinks about, designs, tests and eventually conducts warfare.
C4ISRNET: Describe, let's say, what Russia drone use looks like in 2030 based on these trends.
BENDETT: With the influx of high-precision munitions, development of high-tech weapons and the development of various types of UAVs, future conflicts where Russia will be involved will no longer feature Russian military as a “blunt instrument” — the way Russian tech was used in Chechen wars, in Georgia and even in the early stages of the Syrian conflict. If Russia fields the weapons it is currently designing, then it to will join the ranks of high-tech military powers aiming to strike its adversaries with precision. These UCAVs will have a pivotal role in such a construct.
C4ISRNET: What are constraints on Russia achieving this vision?
BENDETT: Major constraints for Russia to achieve its vision is lack of experience with hi-tech systems — sensors, key electronics, navigation, cameras, etc. Russians have been able to overcome such problems with simpler, smaller drones, but larger MALE/HALE classes are a different story. This led to production and delivery delays, and despite MOD oversight, there was no silver bullet to deal with these issues.
Another constraint has been the effect of Western sanctions and Russian ability to import hi-tech systems and components — today's import-substitution effort by Moscow in hi-tech will take time.
C4ISRNET: Any last thoughts?
BENDETT: As Russia pursues its own version of the “multidomain battle,” unmanned and robotic systems will form key parts of the Russian way of warfare in 2030 and beyond. However, that will depend on the actual capability of the Russian defense sector to field certain unmanned systems. That vision may change based on the reality of producing such systems, given how many T&E and delivery schedules have already been pushed “to the right.”
July 25, 2023 | International, Aerospace
The weapons shipment will be worth up to $400 million, and the U.S. has sent more than $43 billion to Ukraine since Russia launched its invasion.
May 11, 2020 | International, Aerospace
Nathan Strout When the secretive X-37B space plane returns to orbit on May 16, it will be carrying more experiments than it has on any previous mission, including one that will transmit solar energy from space to the ground via microwave energy. "The X-37B team continues to exemplify the kind of lean, agile and forward-leaning technology development we need as a nation in the space domain," said U.S. Space Force Chief of Space Operations Gen. John "Jay" Raymond. "Each launch represents a significant milestone and advancement in terms of how we build, test, and deploy space capabilities in a rapid and responsive manner." The unmanned X-37B, which returned from its last and longest flight in October, is scheduled to launch May 16 from Cape Canaveral Air Force Station, Florida. While an earlier Space Force launch of a GPS III satellite was delayed due to the COVID-19 situation, the X-37B launch has remained on track. Despite being launched by the Space Force, the X-37B remains an Air Force platform. The military has been elusive about what the Boeing-built space plane has been doing on its various missions, beyond noting that it has been used for a number of on orbit experiments. The vehicle has spent a cumulative 2,865 days on orbit, with its last flight being the longest at a record breaking 780 days. In a May 6 press release, the Space Force opened up about some of the experiments that would hitch a ride into orbit aboard the X-37B, most notably one that will deliver solar power to the ground from space via radio frequency microwave energy. That experiment is likely related to the Air Force Research Laboratory's Space Solar Power Incremental Demonstrations and Research (SSPIDR), an effort to collect solar energy with high-efficiency solar cells, convert it to radio frequency, and then beam it to earth. That technology could provide an uninterrupted energy source to expeditionary forces at forward operating bases that have limited access to traditional power sources. “The Space Solar Power Incremental Demonstrations and Research (SSPIDR) Project is a very interesting concept that will enable us to capture solar energy in space and precisely beam it to where it is needed,” Col. Eric Felt, director of AFRL's Space Vehicles Directorate, said in an October statement on the effort. “SSPIDR is part of AFRL's ‘big idea pipeline' to ensure we continue to develop game-changing technologies for our Air Force, DoD, nation, and world.” AFRL has awarded Northrop Grumman a $100 million contract to support space-based experiments supporting SSPIDR. The X-37B will also deploy the FalconSat-8, an educational small satellite developed by the U.S. Air Force Academy that will carry five experimental payloads. Also on board will be two National Aeronautics and Space Administration experiments that will study the effects of radiation and the space environment on seeds used for food products. One reason the vehicle will carry more experiments than prior mission is the attachment of a new service module to the aft of the spacecraft, which will host multiple experiments. “This launch is a prime example of integrated operations between the Air Force, Space Force, and government-industry partnerships,” said Air Force Chief of Staff Gen. David Goldfein. “The X-37B continues to break barriers in advancing reusable space vehicle technologies and is a significant investment in advancing future space capabilities.” https://www.c4isrnet.com/battlefield-tech/space/2020/05/07/here-are-a-few-of-the-experiments-hitching-a-ride-on-the-air-forces-secret-space-plane/
July 4, 2019 | International, Aerospace, C4ISR
By: Nathan Strout The Defense Department's next generation space architecture would consist of several layers based around a mesh network of small communications satellites, according to a document released by the Space Development Agency July 1. A request for information lays out an early outline of what that new satellite architecture would look like and how the commercial sector can contribute to the effort. The SDA is a new entity that the Pentagon established less than four months ago as part of the Trump administration's focus on reorganizing the military's space structure. The agency's initial goal is to develop a next generation space architecture for military satellites in the face of near-peer adversaries' growing interest in space. “In an era of renewed great power competition with an emergent China and a resurgent Russia, maintaining our advantage in space is critical to winning these long-term strategic competitions,” read a request for information posted to the Federal Business Opportunities web site. “These potential adversaries are developing and demonstrating multi-domain threats to national security much faster than we can deploy responsive, space-based capabilities.” The agency wants the new architecture to provide eight essential capabilities identified in a 2018 Pentagon report. In addition, the Pentagon wants to include development of deterrent capability, space situational awareness, a resilient common ground-based space support infrastructure, command and control systems and artificial intelligence-enabled global surveillance. The Space Development Agency's notional architecture is made up of several layers, each of which would contribute to at least one of the eight essential capabilities. They include: A space transport layer: A global mesh network providing 24/7 data and communications. A tracking layer: Provides tracking, targeting and advanced warning of missile threats. A custody layer: Provides “all-weather custody of all identified time-critical targets.” A deterrence layer: Provides space situational awareness—detecting and tracking objects in space to help satellites avoid collisions. A navigation layer: Provides alternative positioning, navigation and timing services in case GPS is blocked or unavailable. A battle management layer: A command, control and communications network augmented by artificial intelligence that provides self-tasking, self-prioritization, on-board processing and dissemination. A support layer: Ground command and control facilities and user terminals, as well as rapid-response launch services. The SDA's immediate goal is the development of a transport layer consisting of a mesh network for communications and data in low earth orbit. As the agency has stated previously, that effort will rely heavily on DARPA's Blackjack program - a project that will establish an initial transport layer with a 20 satellite constellation. The SDA wants to build sub-constellations around the Blackjack program to meet some of the needs it has identified, such as missile defense warnings and targeting, alternative positioning, navigation and timing services, and more. The constellation and associated sub-constellations will be made up of small mass-produced satellites in the agency's vision, ranging from 50 to 500kg. The next-generation space architecture posting is the first request for information that the agency has posted in its brief existence, and sets a tone for what it's looking for from the commercial sector. Specifically, the SDA wants to know what capabilities and concepts the commercial sector can bring to bear on satellite buses, payloads, appliques and launches. Any proposal should fall into at least one of the suggested layers, the SDA stated. “SDA intends to leverage investments made by the private sector in space capabilities (...), as well as industry best practices (e.g., mass production techniques for spacecraft buses, sensors, and user terminals),” stated the agency. Among other things, the agency wants proposals for the following items: Small and cheap payloads that can provide high-bandwidth links between satellites; software that can track missiles from low earth orbit; software that can facilitate autonomous space sensor collection, processing and dissemination, and alternative methods for positioning, navigation and timing in case GPS is unavailable. In addition, the SDA wants feedback on the overall structure of its notional architecture. The SDA is also interested in industry concerns about data rights, security and protection, acquisition approaches and more. In building this new architecture, the SDA is clear that it wants to be agile and flexible in adapting to new technology and threats, meaning it wants to be able to integrate upgrades within two year windows. While it's not clear in the document how quickly the SDA wants to have the new architecture in place, the agency does emphasize that it is looking for efforts that can be demonstrated in less than 18 months. Responses are due on August 5. The SDA plans to hold an Industry Day to connect with the commercial sector in the near future. The document's release comes shortly on the heels of Space Development Agency Director Fred Kennedy's resignation in late June. Kennedy was the agency's first director, having been originally appointed to the position by acting Defense Secretary Patrick Shanahan when the agency was stood up March 12. Derek Tournear, the assistant director for space within the Office of the Under Secretary of Defense for Research & Engineering, was named the acting director of the agency June 24. Prior to taking the assistant director position, Tournear was the director of Harris Space and Intelligence research and development. He has also served stints at the Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity and the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency. A Department of Defense spokesperson stated that Kennedy stepping down would not change the mission of activities of the agency. All of this comes as the U.S. military has worked to revamp its efforts in space. In addition to the stand up of the SDA, the Trump administration is also pushing for the creation of Space Force, a proposed sixth branch of the military that would be housed within the Air Force. While the Senate Armed Services Committee endorsed a version of Space Force, the House Armed Services Committee proposed a Space Corps, which would not be an independent branch of the military. https://www.c4isrnet.com/battlefield-tech/2019/07/03/the-pentagons-new-space-agency-has-an-idea-about-the-future/