June 12, 2020 | International, Aerospace
An early version of the Senate's annual defense bill would provide additional funding for space-based sensors capable of detecting and tracking hypersonic weapons, according to a summary released June 11. However, details on the proposal are scant.
Congress has become increasingly concerned over the threat posed by hypersonic weapons under development by China and Russia. Too dim to be reliably picked up by current space-based sensors and able to maneuver around terrestrial sensors, hypersonic weapons make much of the current missile warning system obsolete, as it was designed for ballistic missile threats.
To counter this threat, the Defense Department has proposed a solution: a proliferated constellation of satellites operating in low Earth orbit. Once a hypersonic threat is detected, the constellation tracks it while passing custody from satellite to satellite as the weapon moves around the globe.
This Hypersonic and Ballistic Tracking Space Sensor, or HBTSS, will be part of the new National Defense Space Architecture, a proliferated constellation that will eventually be made up of hundreds of small satellites operating primarily in low Earth orbit. The Space Development Agency is overseeing this effort and plans to begin placing its first satellites on orbit in fiscal 2022.
The Missile Defense Agency listed HBTSS as an unfunded priority during the prior budget cycle, and ultimately Congress did allocate $108 million to the agency for the program in FY20. Now the Senate Armed Services Committee says it will provide additional funding for the program for FY21, but it has yet to say by how much.
The summary also does not note where the funding for HBTSS will go. Determining which agency would be in charge of HBTSS was a source of friction between the Pentagon and Congress in 2019, with the latter pushing for MDA to take primary responsibility for the effort, while the White House claimed it was too early to put one agency in charge.
Ultimately, legislation passed by Congress in December directed MDA to be the lead agency for the development and deployment of HBTSS. However, the Missile Defense Agency's proposed FY21 budget transfers HBTSS funding responsibility to the Space Development Agency.
At the same time, MDA awarded four $20 million contracts to companies to develop HBTSS prototypes in October. The four companies selected were Northrop Grumman, Leidos, Harris Corporation and Raytheon. The SDA recently issued a request for proposals for wide field of view satellites that references medium field of view satellites which are expected to be launched in 2023. According to SDA Director Derek Tournear, those will be the first space components of MDA's HBTSS.
Still, it's unclear whether Congress will endorse moving HBTSS funding responsibility to SDA in FY21.
When faced with criticism over that move from legislators at a March hearing, MDA Director Vice Adm. Jon Hill assured them that his agency would remain in charge of sensor development for HBTSS, with SDA providing money to MDA for the effort. Hill said the decision to move the funding was made by Under Secretary of Defense for Research and Engineering Michael Griffin
SDA is asking for $137 million for space technology development in FY21, which includes funding for space sensor technology. The agency expects to begin placing payloads on orbit in FY22. The budget request does not specifically break out funding for HBTSS.
MDA has also asked for $207 million for hypersonic defense. That funding will help the agency develop a regional glide phase weapon system and maturing technologies for future hypersonic defense architectures. It does not include funding specifically for HBTSS, as that has transitioned to SDA.
CORRECTION: This story has been corrected to show that the medium field of view satellites are not part of the SDA's wide field of view solicitation.
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December 17, 2018 | International, Aerospace
By: Valerie Insinna WASHINGTON — A next-generation air superiority jet for the U.S. Air Force, known by the service as Penetrating Counter Air, could cost about $300 million in 2018 dollars per plane, the Congressional Budget Office states in a new study. At that price, PCA would be more than three times that of the average F-35A jet, which is set at about $94 million to capture both the expense of early production lots and the decline in cost as the production rate increases, according the report, which predicts the cost of replacing the Air Force's aircraft inventory from now until 2050. This sum, while not an official cost estimate from the Pentagon, represents the first time a government entity has weighed in on the potential price tag for PCA. The CBO estimates the Air Force will need 414 PCA aircraft to replace existing F-15C/Ds and F-22s, the Air Force's current fighters geared toward air-to-air combat. It also surmises that the first aircraft will enter service in 2030, based on the service's stated desire to begin fielding PCA around that time frame. The reason for the whopping price tag? Part of it comes down to the cost of new technology. “The PCA aircraft would probably have a greater range and payload, as well as improved stealth and sensor capabilities, than today's F-22; those characteristics would help it operate in the presence of the high-end air defenses that DoD believes China, Russia, and other potential adversaries may have in the future,” the CBO states. The other reason comes down to history. The Air Force doesn't have a great track record when it comes to producing stealth aircraft at the low costs initially envisioned by leadership. Both the B-2 and F-22 programs were truncated in part due to the high price per plane — which in turn contributed to the production rate never accelerating to the point where unit costs begin to decrease. The early years of the F-35 program were also marred by a series of cost overruns that eventually prompted the Pentagon to restructure it. “Containing costs for the PCA aircraft may be similarly difficult,” the report states. The Air Force has said little about PCA since the release of the Air Superiority 2030 flight plan in 2016, which stated a need for a new fighter jet that would be networked into a family of systems of other air, space, cyber and electronic warfare technologies. “The replacement may not be a single platform,” Gen. Dave Goldfein, the Air Force's chief of staff, told Defense News earlier this year. “It may be two or three different kinds of capabilities and systems. And so as we look at air superiority in the future, ensuring that we're advancing to stay ahead of the adversary, we're looking at all those options.” Although Air Force leadership won't say exactly what it's doing to develop PCA or when a new jet may be coming online, it's clearly making investments. In the fiscal 2019 budget, the service requested $504 million for “next-generation air dominance,” its portfolio of future fighter technologies and weapons. The Air Force expects to ramp up funding to $1.4 billion in FY20, hitting a high in FY22 with a projected $3.1 billion in spending. According to the CBO's analysis, Air Force procurement of new aircraft could peak at about $26 billion in 2033, as the service buys both the F-35 and PCA. Those two fighters, together with the B-21 bomber, are set to be the largest drivers of cost as procurement reaches its height in the mid-2030s. “Although the Air Force could probably modify both retirement plans and replacement schedules to smooth out the 2033 peak, the average annual costs of procuring new aircraft would still be higher than in the recent past: $15 billion in the 2020s, $23 billion in the 2030s, and $15 billion in the 2040s,” the report states. Dealing with an upcoming bow wave CBO's estimates included 35 platforms that will be replacing legacy systems, with six programs making up more than 85 percent of the projected procurement costs cited throughout the report: the F-35, PCA, the KC-46A, the B-21, the C-130J cargo plane as well as the yet-unannounced C-17 replacement. The report envisions a future where the Air Force is allowed to retire all of its legacy fighter and attack aircraft — the A-10, the F-15, the F-16 and even the F-22 — in favor of three aircraft: the F-35, PCA and a light attack aircraft configured to take on low-threat missions. The Air Force has yet to decide whether to buy a light-attack aircraft or how extensive its purchase may be, although the service is expected to put out a request for proposals by the end of the month. “Funding for new fighter aircraft makes up about half of the total projected costs of procuring new aircraft,” the CBO states, with the F-35 set to be the most expensive program through the 2020s until PCA takes its place in the early 2030s. The Air Force could decrease costs in a couple of ways, although all of them come with significant drawbacks. For one, it could extend the lives of its legacy fighter and attack aircraft, and delay programs like PCA. However, the CBO notes that “obtaining replacement parts can be both difficult and expensive, and a refurbished fleet may not provide as many available and mission-capable aircraft as a new fleet.” If the service wants to increase the availability of its inventory without paying the high price associated with developing a new stealth fighter, it could retire its legacy F-15s and F-16s and buy new ones. That option is probably more expensive, but would result in aircraft that are more reliable. The Air Force could also defer the PCA program while allowing some of its legacy aircraft to be retired, the CBO posits. However, Air Force leadership contend that the service is already too small, with Secretary Heather Wilson arguing that the number of operational squadrons needs to increase from 312 to 386 — a goal that necessitates buying more aircraft. https://www.defensenews.com/air/2018/12/14/budget-watchdogs-warn-of-expensive-price-tag-for-next-air-force-fighter/