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  September 10, 2019 | International, Naval

  Britain’s shipbuilding strategy has not gone according to plan — and industry is noticing

  By: Andrew Chuter LONDON — Confronted with the dilemma of maintaining a naval industrial base after the completion of two 65,000-ton aircraft carriers for the Royal Navy, the British government two years ago launched a national shipbuilding strategy aimed at building an efficient sector, and thus keeping skills and capacity alive. But the strategy has failed to work out exactly as planned. Two yards closed this year and a third was rescued by nationalization. Meanwhile in the supply chain, the Ministry of Defence had to act quickly on ordering the motor for the Type 26 frigate to prevent the contractor from moving its capabilities to France. Former shipyard boss Peter Parker, who authored the original shipbuilding strategy, delivered a review of the strategy's status to the MoD, but the update remains under wraps, with no firm timing announced for its publication. One key element of the strategy included procurement of five general-purpose frigates for the Royal Navy to be competed for by local shipyards in an effort to end BAE Systems' maritime monopoly in Britain. Another included an international competition for up to three 40,000-ton fleet solid support ships. Both programs have subsequently run into stormy waters. Paul Everitt, the chief executive of ADS, the lobby group that represents British defense, aerospace and security companies, said it's important to continue to support the strategy, even as some of the impetus has been lost. “We need to stick with the national shipbuilding strategy. It marks a significant shift in the MoD's approach to procurement. The area that has been challenging, though, is that progress has been hindered by the political uncertainty around Brexit and the future size of MoD budgets,” Everitt said, referring to Britain's exit from the European Union. “Some of the decisions that would help to give industry the longer-term certainty they require to invest or hang in there aren't being made,” he added. “Where do we go next ? It is really about the MoD creating certainty around a pipeline of work from all the key programs, all of which should offer significant amounts of work to U.K. industry over the next 15 years.” Shipyard survival Not everyone remains signed up to the shipbuilding strategy, however. Defense commentator Howard Wheeldon, of Wheeldon Strategic Advisory, is unsure about the relevance of the strategy. “It's no longer fit for purpose. We have moved on. More shipyards have closed due to lack of work, and we should not kid ourselves that a commercial shipyard that has little or no expertise in building Navy ships can take on the responsibility and risk that the government requires,” Wheeldon said. “If the government has any belief in the strategy, it will ensure that contracts for the fleet [solid] support ships will be placed in U.K. shipyards. If it fails, then we must conclude that it has neither belief in its own strategy or in ensuring that we retain the sovereign capability that a nation such as the U.K. needs,” he added. An international competition to build two or three fleet solid support ships has been underway for months, with the bidders narrowed down to Navantia of Spain, Japan Marine United Corp., and a homemade consortium made up of BAE Systems, Babcock International, Cammell Laird and Rolls-Royce, known as Team UK. The MoD opened the deal to foreign bidders, reasoning that the vessels were not warships and therefore, under European Union regulations, the competition must be open to all. Now, though, the tide seems to be turning in favor of British yards taking a bigger share of the work than just the fitting of locally made sensitive kit. One senior industry executive, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said the “current fleet solid support [ship] procurement plan is not really tenable with the current government team and a shipbuilding strategy which is in danger of becoming unstitched.” “The government will have come under huge pressure on this issue at every political level. You have a new procurement minister, [Marie-Anne Trevelyn], who only a couple of months ago put her name to a parliamentary report supporting building the ships in the U.K.; you have a Brexiter defense secretary in Ben Wallace; and [Prime Minister Boris] Johnson himself,” the industry executive said. “Is that trio likely to award a contract to a Spanish yard?” Whatever the outcome, it's too late for two of the yards. Babcock's Appledore yard in southwest England closed in early 2019 after the completion of an offshore patrol boat for the Irish Naval Service. Additionally, Harland & Wolff recently went into insolvency proceedings with its Belfast, Northern Ireland, yard that famously built the Titanic — although there remains a chance a buyer could be found for the facility. In Glasgow, shipbuilder Ferguson's nationalization by the Scottish government was announced Aug. 16 after the yard went over time and over budget with a commercial ferry contract it won. Harland & Wolff was the lead U.K. yard in a proposal by German-based Atlas Elektronik to build Type 31e frigates for the Royal Navy. The yard's demise could scuttle the German company's bid, although parent company Thyssenkrupp has a history of reviving cold yards. Atlas isn't the only company with Harland & Wolff on its team. Babcock also listed the Northern Ireland yard in its Type 31e proposal at one stage and also named Ferguson as a subcontractor. Britain has shortlisted three contenders for the Type 31e requirement: Atlas, Babcock and BAE Systems. A decision on a winner is expected this year, although there has been speculation it could come during or soon after the DSEI trade show in September. Second-order effects The supply chain has not been immune from difficulties either. GE Power, which provides power-conversion systems for Royal Navy warships, announced it was closing its Rugby site in Central England and relocating the work to France. In response, the MoD ordered motors for a second batch of Type 26s to prevent the move, even though BAE does not yet have a deal to build the warships. The industry executive said the GE Power episode highlighted a weakness in Britain's shipbuilding strategy. “GE proved the point: It [the strategy] didn't really address the criticality of the supply chain. It assumed the criticality was all about shipyards,” he said. “The other fundamental flaw with it was you were never going to keep all the U.K. yards in business if you were going to put the fleet solid support ship deal offshore.” The situation certainly isn't improved by the political turmoil at the MoD and in wider government. Defense and procurement leaders have been coming and going with alarming regularity for years , particularly since the government adopted the shipbuilding strategy in September 2017. Penny Mordaunt, the pro-Navy, pro-buy-British defense secretary, lasted just more than 60 days before she found herself backing the wrong candidate in a Conservative Party leadership contest, which resulted in Johnson becoming prime minister on July 24. Given the current political uncertainties, there is no guarantee how long the new administration will last. With the Brexit debate occupying the government nearly 24/7, defense has barely rated a mention by the Johnson government; that is, other than during the furor caused by the Royal Navy's inability to stop the seizure of a British-registered tanker by Iran on July 19. The uncertainties have come at a time of mixed fortunes for the British maritime sector. Yards may be closing, but set against that is the Type 26 anti-submarine frigate design scoring major export successes in Australia and Canada — successes that could put Britain back on the maritime export map in a big way. Neither of the export customers will have their frigates built in the U.K., but the deals open the door to potentially billions of pounds of orders for the British supply chain. https://www.defensenews.com/global/europe/2019/09/08/britains-shipbuilding-strategy-has-not-gone-according-to-plan-and-industry-is-noticing/

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  September 8, 2020 | International, Aerospace

  MQ-NEXT: US Air Force Considers Reaper Replacement

  The General Atomics-built MQ-9 Reaper — a medium-altitude, long-endurance unmanned aerial vehicle with millions of hours of operation under its belt — has had a ubiquitous presence over battlefields in the Middle East. But with the Pentagon preparing for future fights in contested, non-permissive environments against peer adversaries, the service is beginning its search for the aircraft's replacement. The Reaper — which is larger and carries more payload than its predecessor the MQ-1 Predator — provides the military with a “hunter-killer” capability by executing both strike and intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance collection functions. But officials say it is time for a new platform that can take on those same missions and more. The service signaled its intent in President Donald Trump's fiscal year 2021 budget request by zeroing out its proposed buys of MQ-9s as it pursues a follow-on aircraft, though legislators may push back on the move. “We made the pivot to divest MQ-9s to pivot into high-end warfighting,” said Will Roper, assistant secretary of the Air Force for acquisition, technology and logistics, during a press briefing in July. The service is now pursuing a replacement system dubbed the MQ-Next. The move to acquire a new platform — the second such effort for the Air Force following a canceled program known as MQ-X in 2012 — comes as the Pentagon shifts to great power competition with advanced adversaries Russia and China, as outlined in the 2018 National Defense Strategy. In June, the Air Force released a request for information to industry seeking input about a new medium-altitude drone, with particular focus on innovative development and business practices, and digital engineering initiatives. Responses were due in late July and a number of major defense companies responded. Affordability and versatility will be key as the Air Force looks for the Reaper's replacement, Roper noted. “We're going to have to explore more than just the MQ-9 mission or else we're not going to be able to create enough of an asset within the Air Force budget itself to afford to pursue the program,” he said. “If all we do is replace the MQ-9 mission, we really generated a bill for the Air Force.” The Department of the Air Force has a number of expensive programs on its shopping list as it pursues an ambitious modernization strategy that includes fifth-generation fighters, a new nuclear-capable stealth bomber and ground-based strategic deterrent, space systems superiority and joint all-domain command and control. If the new drone is “another mouth to feed and it's not helping us with high-end warfighting, then it's not likely to be first in the queue,” he said. Using a baseball analogy, Roper said he wants to see the replacement platform be a true utility player. He envisions a future where the aircraft could go from collecting ISR data to being weaponized to conduct air-to-air operations. “Can I have a drone that I can put forward in a high-end fight that can provide a picket line that makes it difficult for enemy fighters to push through?” he asked. “Can I pull that drone back to the rear and have it protect high-value assets, aircraft and even bases?” Because the Air Force is looking for a UAS that can perform a variety of missions, it may need to pursue more than one aircraft, Roper said. “I'm open to families of systems,” he said. The service wants industry to think outside-of-the box about how the Air Force can conduct high-end warfighting against a peer adversary. Increased automation is one solution, which will also help with affordability, Roper noted. “It takes a ton of people to operate even one MQ-9,” he said. “That's not a knock against the platform — it was designed at a different point in technology. And now many of the things we have people do, we can automate.” The service intends to have airmen in the loop for critical decisions — especially lethal ones — and will not delegate that to machines, he said. But it wants to simplify how users interact with the next-generation drone. “We have to automate as much as possible if we're going to keep the platform affordable,” he said. Technology such as artificial intelligence can assist with automation and reduce operating costs, he added. “We can really drop the cost per hour of ISR ... if algorithms are doing most of the triaging of the raw video and only sending back to remote operators objects that are of interest,” Roper said during a Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies event. Additionally, in regions such as Central Command and Africa Command there is a possibility that the service could reduce the number of airmen that have to operate the MQ-Next platform if AI and new commercial technology is adopted. Meanwhile, survivability and expendability will be important considerations for the program. “I imagine being in industry shoes. I would either try to have something that is so cheap that I can proliferate it broadly — and that comes with a logistics challenge for us — or something that is reasonably defendable enough so that if I'm an adversary, I have to truly commit capital assets to take it out,” he said. Moving to an architecture that supports expendable aircraft will not be easy, he noted. “We have been able amazingly to build airplanes that we expect to return every single time they take off,” he said. “You can imagine designing things that may not return is a complete culture shift for us and for industry.” Based on informal engagements he has had with companies, Roper said he expected to see a great deal of creativity in industry responses to the RFI. The service is aiming for initial delivery beginning in 2030, and initial operational capability by 2031, according to the RFI. “In a digitally engineered future, 10 years is an eternity. I would hope we could spiral multiple times within that 10 years,” Roper said. If “we can't get it done by 2030 then something is wrong with our system. Ten years should never be the time you take for development except for extremely exceptional things.” General Atomics is responding to the RFI and plans to leverage its experience with the MQ-9 as it pursues the effort, according to a company spokesperson. “The technology advancements we propose will leverage open architecture, artificial intelligence, autonomy, modularity and interoperability to maximize both system effectiveness and service investments,” the spokesperson said. “We believe our technology advancements offer lower lifecycle cost and provide warfighters with enhanced unmanned capabilities that enable commonality and joint interoperability on the battlefield.” The company is embracing the possibility of a family of systems for the program, the spokesperson noted. It is planning to leverage more automation in future platforms and is already integrating such technology on the MQ-9. “This includes automatic take-off, landing and remote taxi, and a portable aircraft control system for aircraft launch and recovery that eliminates the need for forward-deployed launch/recovery crews,” they said. “We also developed a single-seat ground control station and have a multi-mission control capability that lets a single pilot control up to six MQ-9s.” If the Air Force were to use all of these automation tools on the Reaper, the spokesperson projected that it could reduce the service's manpower bill by 50 percent and free up 1,500 aircrew billets “that could be applied towards expanded MQ-9 mission capability, reallocated to other priority personnel requirements, or eliminated to realize multi-billion dollar savings over the remainder of the MQ-9 service life.” Analysts say the likely competitors to incumbent General Atomics include Lockheed Martin, Boeing and Northrop Grumman. In a statement, a Lockheed Martin spokesperson said the company intended to respond to the RFI and would leverage work done by its advanced development program division, Skunk Works, which has expertise in developing unmanned platforms. Boeing and Northrop Grumman said they plan to pursue the program but declined to provide specific details on their RFI submissions. MQ-Next will be an important program for General Atomics because the MQ-9 is its bread and butter, said Phil Finnegan, director of corporate analysis at the Teal Group, a Fairfax, Virginia-based aerospace and defense market analysis firm. “They're going to fight hard to try to build a replacement,” he said. The company would be in a difficult position if it lost the competition because it brings in a lot of revenue from the Reaper. However, Larry Dickerson, a senior defense analyst at Forecast International, a Newtown, Connecticut-based marketing consulting firm, noted that it wouldn't be all doom and gloom for General Atomics if it loses the MQ-Next competition. “The Reaper systems are going to be in [service] for a long time, which means there's going to be a lot of long-term support and maintenance contracts that are going to be coming towards them,” he said. Meanwhile, while the Air Force is gung-ho about pursuing a replacement for the MQ-9, some in Congress appear to be less so. In the House fiscal year 2021 defense appropriations bill — which was passed by the chamber in late July — lawmakers included funding for 16 MQ-9s at a cost of $344 million that would keep its production line going, according to a summary of the legislation. As of press time, a final appropriations bill had yet to be passed. “The Air Force's fiscal year 2021 budget request proposes to terminate production of MQ-9 aircraft, citing an excess of aircraft compared to projected operational requirements,” said the House Appropriations defense subcommittee in its version of the spending bill. “The committee does not accept this proposal and recommends additional funding for 16 MQ-9 aircraft.” Lawmakers said they were concerned that the Air Force reached its decision without adequate planning for a follow-on system. The committee directed the service to submit a report about an MQ-9 follow-on program to congressional defense committees before the fiscal year 2022 budget request. “The report shall detail the desired features of such a system, the cost and timeline required to achieve development and fielding, proposed measures to ensure full and open competition, and an explanation of how such a system would fulfill the goals of the National Defense Strategy,” the bill said. Roper noted that the Air Force will need to convince the Hill about the usefulness of a new platform. “Building a utility player that can meet multiple mission demands is not something that our acquisition system has historically been good at,” he said. “We've got to get good quickly to convince Congress that this is a good pivot, and I look forward to having those discussions.” Finnegan noted that lawmakers' reluctance to shut down the MQ-9 production line could be a hurdle for the MQ-Next program. “If there's one thing Congress doesn't like, it's shutting down production lines. And trying to kill a program is extremely difficult,” he said. “We're already seeing that.” Meanwhile, in July the Trump administration announced that it was loosening some UAS export rules associated with the Missile Technology Control Regime, which could have impacts on both the Reaper and the MQ-Next programs. The adjustment would affect “Category 1” systems that have a maximum airspeed of less than 800 kilometers per hour. The new policy is expected to increase trade opportunities for U.S. companies, according to analysts. For General Atomics, the loosening of rules could drum up new business abroad for the MQ-9 but there are still some hurdles, Dickerson said. How the MTCR changes will affect sales of a future MQ-Next platform is still up in the air, he noted. “It depends on the type of system they select,” he said. “The U.S. will not want to sell this system to everyone.” https://www.uasvision.com/2020/09/08/mq-next-us-air-force-considers-reaper-replacement/

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  June 8, 2020 | International, Aerospace, Naval, Land, C4ISR, Security

  France Plans Billions of Euros to Rescue Aerospace Industry

  By Francois De Beaupuy and Tara Patel The French government will present a plan worth billions of euros to rescue its beleaguered aerospace industry, protect key suppliers from Chinese interests and may bring forward some defense orders, the transport minister said. The aid package to be presented Tuesday is aimed at European jet manufacturer Airbus SE, engine maker Safran SA, defense group Thales SA, and hundreds of French suppliers that have seen their businesses dry up during the coronavirus pandemic. The plan will be worth as much as 10 billion euros ($11.3 billion), Les Echos reported Monday, although it's not clear what will be included in the total. “We will invest several billions over a rather long period,” French Transport Minister Jean-Baptiste Djebbari said on LCI television Sunday. “The state will be here, the European Union will be present.” The package will aim to kickstart air transport, relaunch manufacturing, and develop less-polluting “hybrid planes” toward 2027 and “carbon neutral” aircraft by 2035, the minister said. In exchange, the industry will have to create or relocate as many jobs as it can in Europe, he said. However, the minister said the industry will probably have to cut jobs. With airlines grounding their fleets worldwide because of the health crisis, Airbus faces a 40% drop in its activity over at least two years, he said. Airlines around the world are struggling to survive, with European giants Deutsche Lufthansa AG and Air France-KLM getting state bailouts and carriers desperate to salvage business from what is normally the busy summer. The French government has extended loans and guarantees worth 7 billion euros to Air France-KLM, tying the funds to a reduction in carbon emissions and services on its domestic routes. The rescue will include the creation of several funds to consolidate the industry and to prevent key suppliers from being acquired by foreign investors, Djebbari said. Chinese companies are making “offers” to small and medium-sized companies with “critical skills” that are currently weakened by the crisis, he said. Many of the companies that have been hardest hit are small and medium-sized. While they have limited access to commercial bank funding, some are considered strategic because they are also defense suppliers. Read More: Macron Is Set to Unveil Rescue Package for French Aerospace Many European nations will probably agree to reopen air travel in the so-called Schengen area from June 15 assuming that the coronavirus crisis continue to recede, Djebbari added. The number of Air France's flights may rise from 5% of its usual level to 15% from June 15, and to 40% in mid-August, he said. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-06-07/france-plans-billions-of-euros-to-rescue-aerospace-industry