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October 7, 2019 | International, Aerospace, Naval, Land, C4ISR, Security

Here’s how many foreign military sales the US State Department OK’d in FY19

By: Aaron Mehta

WASHINGTON — The U.S. State Department cleared $67.9 billion in weapons in fiscal 2019, in an indication that America's position in the global arms trade remains strong.

The number, spread across 64 individual procurement requests from 28 different countries and a NATO consortium, represents the second year in a row that the overall value of foreign military sales requests have slightly declined. But the total still represents almost double the total cleared by the State Department in fiscal year 2016.

These numbers represent potential arms sales that the State Department cleared internally, then passed on to Congress through the Defense Security Cooperation Agency. The notifications do not represent final sales; if Congress does not reject the potential sale, it then goes into negotiations, during which dollar figures and quantities of equipment can change. In some cases, as highlighted by the large FMS request notification for Turkey to buy Patriot batteries, those sales will never happen.

However, while not solid dollars, notifications are a notable way of tracking interest in procuring American arms from foreign partners, and can be a leading indicator of final sales to come.

Geographically, the Pacific region led the way with 21 requests, totaling $24.8 billion in potential sales – notable given the emphasis put forth by the Trump administration that the Pacific represents a priority theater for the future. Following that was the Middle East, with 18 requests totaling $15.2 billion. Europe had 18 requests for $19.8 billion; the only nation from Africa, Morocco, put in six requests totaling $7.26 billion; and Canada put in three requests, for $731 million.

The biggest potential customer, at a time of a whole-of-government effort against China is underway, is Taiwan. Over four different requests, Taiwan requested $10.7 billion in sales, driven primarily by $8 billion for long-sought F-16 aircraft, as well as $2 billion for Abrams tanks.

In second place was Japan, with $7.54 billion in requested sales, spread over six requests. That was driven by three different tranches of SM-3 missiles and an Aegis Ashore missile defense system. Morocco, which was cleared for six separate requests totaling $7.26 billion on U.S. arms, came in third. Their procurement was driven mainly by its purchase of new F-16 fighter jets and the associated equipment, as well as a request for Abrams tanks.

As always with FMS notifications, a few large sales can drive the overall total. Sixteen of the 63 sales requests topped $1 billion, led by Taiwan's F-16 request ($8 billion), Poland's F-35 request ($6.5 billion), Morocco's F-16s ($3.79 billion), the U.K's procurement of Chinook helicopters ($3.5 billion), Turkey's Patriot request ($3.5 billion) and Japan's largest SM-3 request ($3.3 billion).

The F-16 was a significant driver of FMS requests this year, showing the Lockheed Martin legacy plane remains popular around the world. Eight requests, with a potential total of $15.8 billion in sales, involved the F-16, raging from the request for tranches of fighters from Taiwan, Morocco and Bulgaria to $125 million for Pakistan security support related to their F-16 fighters.

While the numbers are strong, Roman Schweizer, an analyst with Cowen, notes that political realities could upend an unusual number of these potential deals in the coming year.

“Notably, for FY19, there are a number of large sales that may be unlikely for political or other reasons: these include a $3.5B sale to Turkey of Raytheon's Patriot missile system, a $2B sale to Taiwan of General Dynamics' M1 Abrams tanks, and an $8B sale to Taiwan of Lockheed Martin F-16s,” he wrote in a note to investors. “We don't think a Turkish Patriot purchase is possible as they continue to own/operate Russian-made S-400s. And while Taiwan needs U.S. weapons (fighters, tanks and more), there is a legitimate concern that those sales could be halted if there is a broader strategic agreement with China on trade and economic issues.

“If that's the case, about 20% of this year's potential deals aren't viable, meaning this would be a step-down year but not quite as low as FY16's $37B in announcements.”

From a corporate level, Schweizer estimates Lockheed Martin is the big winner for the year with $32 billion, followed by Raytheon at $15 billion, Boeing at $9 billion, General Dynamics at $3 billion, Northrop Grumman at $1.2 billion and Textron $600 million.

A specific wrinkle for FY19's accounting was the inclusion of $3.9 billion as part of a controversial emergency package pushed through by the Trump administration for Saudi Arabia and the UAE. For the better part of a year, those weapons were tied up in Congress over concerns of how they will be used as part of the Saudi-led actions against Iranian-backed fighters in Yemen, an operation that has contributed to a humanitarian crisis in that country. The issue escalated following the death of columnist Jamal Khashoggi, which has been tied to the Saudi royal family.

In May, the State Department announced that an emergency exemption would be used to push those arm sales through; while the administration cited a broad threat from Iran in the region as the reason, the move received bipartisan rebuke from both the Senate and the House, with some members expressing concern this was a precedent-setting move to take away arms sale veto powers from Congress.

That $3.9 billion was divided among seven FMS notifications, four for the UAE and three for Saudi Arabia.

https://www.defensenews.com/global/2019/10/04/heres-how-many-foreign-military-sales-the-state-department-okd-in-fy19/

On the same subject

  • Navy Wants $12 Billion for Unmanned Platforms

    May 27, 2020 | International, Naval

    Navy Wants $12 Billion for Unmanned Platforms

    5/26/2020 By Jon Harper The Navy already plans to spend big on robotics platforms in the coming years. As operation and maintenance costs grow and defense budgets tighten, that trend could accelerate, analysts say. The sea service's future years defense program calls for about $12 billion for unmanned aircraft, surface vessels and underwater systems in fiscal years 2021 through 2025, according to Bloomberg Government. Senior officials have a stated goal of pursuing a 355-plus-ship fleet of manned vessels, but unmanned systems are “probably the future of the Navy,” Robert Levinson, senior defense analyst at Bloomberg Government, said during a recent webinar. About $7.9 billion in the future years defense program would go toward drones, including nearly $4.3 billion for the MQ-4C Triton maritime surveillance aircraft and nearly $1 billion for the MQ-25 Stingray aircraft carrier-launched tanker, according to his presentation slides. An additional $2.2 billion would be allocated toward unmanned surface vessels, or USVs, and $1.9 billion for unmanned underwater vessels, or UUVs. Navy plans call for spending $941 million on USVs and UUVs in 2021 alone, a 129 percent increase relative to 2019, according to the slides. Operations, maintenance and personnel costs could squeeze modernization accounts in the coming years, Levinson noted. The 2021 Navy budget request included $125.8 billion total for those categories. In comparison, the request included $57.2 billion for procurement and $21.5 billion for research, development, test and evaluation. “With this budget being especially flat, you're really seeing the tension particularly in the Navy of, ... ‘Do we spend money on buying new stuff? Or do we need to spend the money on maintaining the stuff we have?'” he said. “You can buy more ships and put more money [into that], but then you need more sailors and you need more training of the sailors,” he noted. The COVID-19 pandemic could exacerbate funding constraints and further incentivize investments in unmanned platforms, Levinson said. “The Navy is really in a tough spot” trying to achieve its force level goals, he added. However, unmanned vessels are generally expected to be less expensive to procure, operate and maintain than manned platforms, which make them attractive as the sea service invests in new capabilities, Levinson noted. Meanwhile, the Marine Corps plans to restructure its forces to take on advanced adversaries, with a heavier emphasis on robotic platforms. “That has huge implications going out into the future” for acquisitions, Levinson said. “The Marine Corps' restructuring that's been announced is probably the biggest in a generation.” https://www.nationaldefensemagazine.org/articles/2020/5/26/navy-wants-$12-billion-for-unmanned-platforms

  • Naval Air Systems Command Exercises Option for an Additional $38.7 Million for Full Rate Production (Lot 2) of the BQM-177A Subsonic Aerial Target System

    December 11, 2020 | International, Aerospace, Naval

    Naval Air Systems Command Exercises Option for an Additional $38.7 Million for Full Rate Production (Lot 2) of the BQM-177A Subsonic Aerial Target System

    San Diego, December 10, 2020 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Kratos Defense & Security Solutions, Inc. (NASDAQ: KTOS), a leading National Security Solutions provider and industry-leading provider of high-performance, jet-powered unmanned aerial systems, announced today that Kratos has received an additional $38,691,360 from the U.S. Navy for Lot 2 of its recently-awarded Full Rate Production (FRP) contract for an additional 48 BQM-177A Subsonic Aerial Targets (SSAT) and associated technical data. Steve Fendley, President of Kratos Unmanned Systems Division, said, “The SSAT is an incredibly high-performance threat representation system consistently providing performance levels previously unachievable. The exercise of the FRP Lot 2 option secures the uninterrupted production of our SSAT system well into the Government's Fiscal Year (GFY) 2023. Concurrently, we have been part of the Navy's site activation plan and I couldn't be prouder of the part we played in supporting the first flight at the Pacific Missile Range Facility in Kauai, Hawaii last month. Under Captain Molly Boron's leadership, the NAVAIR-Kratos team is already halfway to its goal of achieving Full Operational Capability (FOC) in GFY21. Even under normal circumstances, achievement of FOC would be very challenging but to be making the progress we have during this pandemic is a testament both to the Navy's leadership and the commitment and perseverance of the Kratos team during these challenging times.” About Kratos Defense & Security Solutions Kratos Defense & Security Solutions, Inc. (NASDAQ:KTOS) develops and fields transformative, affordable technology, platforms and systems for United States National Security related customers, allies and commercial enterprises. Kratos is changing the way breakthrough technology for these industries are rapidly brought to market through proven commercial and venture capital backed approaches, including proactive research and streamlined development processes. At Kratos, affordability is a technology, and we specialize in unmanned systems, satellite communications, cyber security/warfare, microwave electronics, missile defense, hypersonic systems, training, combat systems and next generation turbo jet and turbo fan engine development. For more information, please visit www.KratosDefense.com. Notice Regarding Forward-Looking Statements Certain statements in this press release may constitute “forward-looking statements” within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These forward-looking statements are made on the basis of the current beliefs, expectations and assumptions of the management of Kratos and are subject to significant risks and uncertainty. Investors are cautioned not to place undue reliance on any such forward-looking statements. All such forward-looking statements speak only as of the date they are made, and Kratos undertakes no obligation to update or revise these statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. Although Kratos believes that the expectations reflected in these forward-looking statements are reasonable, these statements involve many risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from what may be expressed or implied in these forward-looking statements. For a further discussion of risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ from those expressed in these forward-looking statements, as well as risks relating to the business of Kratos in general, see the risk disclosures in the Annual Report on Form 10-K of Kratos for the year ended December 29, 2019, and in subsequent reports on Forms 10-Q and 8-K and other filings made with the SEC by Kratos. Press Contact: Yolanda White 858-812-7302 Direct Investor Information: 877-934-4687 investor@kratosdefense.com View source version on Kratos Defense & Security Solutions, Inc.: https://ir.kratosdefense.com/news-releases/news-release-details/naval-air-systems-command-exercises-option-additional-387

  • What does 2019 hold for Russia’s drones?

    December 27, 2018 | International, Aerospace

    What does 2019 hold for Russia’s drones?

    By: Kelsey D. Atherton To understand the future of Russia's drone program, we have to grasp its present and immediate past. While the modern era of unmanned aircraft is perhaps best typified by American Reaper drones flying missions with Hellfire missiles slung under wing, the overall picture of drones in combat has evolved and changed. The Pentagon's primacy in aerial robotics is no longer a sure thing, in part because of the waning unipolar moment and in part because building a drone capability is cheaper today than it was two decades ago. To sort out what the past year means, to see if any of the battlefield experience from the multiple irregular wars Russia is part of has factored into drone design or force planning, C4ISRNET spoke with Samuel Bendett, an adviser at the Center for Naval Analyses and a Fellow in Russia Studies at the American Foreign Policy Council. C4ISRNET: Bottom line up front: What's the single sentence takeaway for next year in Russian drones? BENDETT: As Russia develops its lineup of long-range UCAVs [unmanned combat aerial vehicles], it will challenge American dominance with such technologies that Washington held for the past 17-18 years. C4ISRNET: That's ambitious, to say the least. How is the Ministry of Defence preparing to make that challenge, and did Russia learn anything from fighting in Syria that might lead to changes in how it uses drones in 2019? BENDETT: [The week of Dec. 17] marked a series of key announcements from the Russian Ministry of Defence about the country's growing unmanned aerial systems capabilities. Going into Syria in 2015, Russia was lacking a key combat element — the ability to hit targets quickly following their identification, one of the key functions of UCAVs around the world today. Moscow's experience in Syria underscored that point — despite fielding a large number of ISR drones that enabled Russian to be more precise in combat, the majority of targets were hit by manned aviation or manned artillery forces. Hence, the push today to field an entire lineup of strike UAVs for a diverse range of missions. Public statements by the Russian government and the military establishment also highlight the importance of unmanned systems for the country's military and its ability to wage war. Just recently, President Putin stated key propriety areas for his military in 2019 — among them was an emphasis on unmanned and robotic systems development. C4ISRNET: What sort of drones are we seeing in that push? BENDETT: The Ministry of Defence mentioned work on a strike version of Forpost mid-range drone. The Forpost UAV is a license copy of an Israeli “Searcher,” itself a design that is decades old at this point. Capable of distances up to 250 kilometers, it is currently Russia's longest-ranged drone. Under the earlier license agreement with Israel, this UAV could only be assembled as an ISR version. Russian military valued this particular unmanned vehicle and has long wanted to turn into something more than an extra pair of eyes in the sky. Today, UZGA Defence enterprise is claiming that the “Russified” version of that UAV is full of Russian-made components, so that no further cooperation with Israel would be necessary. Putting a strike package on Forpost would give Russian an immediate ability to hit targets within a 250 kilometer range — in other words, giving it the ability to strike most adversary targets in Syria where Russian forces are still conducting operations. Given that Forpost itself is an older UAV model, it's likely that the Russian military will use it as a test bed to further refine its UAV manufacturing abilities, as well as to test indigenous munitions for UAV missions. It's likely that out of all UAVs listed by the MOD, this particular one will reach the Russian forces sooner than others. C4ISRNET: What about the Orion? BENDETT: The Ministry also named Orion UAV as another unmanned vehicle to fully see the light of day in 2019. Orion has similar characteristics to Forpost, such as range, at least as advertised at international arms expos [250 kilometers]. It is possible that its range could be extended further — current Orion versions are showcased as ISR models, but there were discussions that it could be offered for export as armed version. This particular UAV has similar design features to the ever-growing family of unmanned aerial vehicles all over the world — it bears close resemblance to the American RQ-9 Reaper, Chinese CH-4 and Ch-5 drones, as well as to the Iranian Shahed and Turkish Anka UAVs. Unlike Forpost, Orion was only recently tested, although there were rumors that it was seen in Syria, with observers possibly confusing it with the Iranian Shahed. C4ISRNET: Are there other large drones in the works for the Ministry of Defence in 2019? BENDETT: The Ohotnik UCAV is the most intriguing and interesting project of its kind in Russia. Originally started around 2011-2012, this UAV has also been delayed by a number of years. This fall, MOD carried out the first “taxing” test, when Ohotnik prototype was accelerated on the runway to test the engine. Next year, the Russian defense establishment is promising a test that will include a short-duration “jump”— the UCAV will rise ever so briefly above the tarmac to test its launching and landing capabilities. At this point, it is going to be heaviest and fastest UAV if and when fielded, but additional testing and evaluation will have to take place in order for this unmanned system to be fully functional. Its speed — up to 1000 km/hr — and weight — up to 20 tonnes — means that a host of aerodynamic, electronic and hi-tech issues need to be worked out. C4ISRNET: Should we hold our breath waiting for the Ohotnik test flights? BENDETT: Given the delays experienced with “Altius,” MOD would probably be more conservative with Ohotnik estimates. However, the very appearance of Ohotnik rising in the air — a stealthy blended-wing design — will be a powerful PR coup for the country that has lagged behind other nations like the United States, Israel and China in actual UCAV examples and combat use. C4ISRNET: What was the Altius, and what happened with it? BENDETT: The Altius was one of the most ambitious UAV projects in Russia — to build an indigenous drone capable of carrying up to 2.5 tonnes of cargo/equipment/weapons to a distance of 10,000 kilometers. Earlier estimates that this UAV would be fully operational by 2018 did not pan out. Delays in production, a lack of key expertise and hi-tech components meant the entire scheduled pushed “to the right” by many years. [The week of Dec. 17] MOD promised that Altius will take to the skies next year — given the fact that Simonov actually produced a prototype that has already flown, that promise may indeed materialize. The real issue will be the quality of that test flight — whether Altius will fly as intended and with the right amount of key equipment. C4ISRNET: How will these drones change the way Russia plans and conducts war? BENDETT: All these UAVs — if and when fielded as planned and as advertised — will give Russia the capability to strike targets at a range anywhere form 250 kilometers and up to several thousand kilometers. This is a flexibility the Russian military has long sought — its Syrian actions depended on manned airborne assets conducting deep-strike against designated targets, which in turn depended on an extensive logistics and infrastructure to support such missions. Having the ability to launch long-range UCAVs from Russian [or Russian-allied] territory would exponentially increase MOD's ability to conduct missions in the near abroad and possibly around the world. Of course, that would depend largely on the domestic defense sector actually delivering what was initially promised, something that some UAV projects have greatly struggled with. C4ISRNET: Russian forces have used small drones quite a bit. Is any of that transferable to using these new, larger drones? BENDETT: While the Russian military has gained extensive experience operating a wide range of close and short-range UAVs, and has commenced force-wide training and usage of these unmanned systems, operating the large and heavy UAVs would be a different story. This kind of technology requires different training, as well as different logistical and infrastructure support. Getting these UCAVs into the military will require a change to existing CONOPS and TTPs, something that will take time as the Russian military will need to become familiar with a different set of technological sophistication. Still, these UAVs are finally moving past the prototype stage — with the Ministry of Defence paying very close attention to these projects, the likely 2019 appearance is guaranteed for these designs. Their eventual acquisition is still years away. Russian UCAV plans will have important implications for the way Moscow thinks about, designs, tests and eventually conducts warfare. C4ISRNET: Describe, let's say, what Russia drone use looks like in 2030 based on these trends. BENDETT: With the influx of high-precision munitions, development of high-tech weapons and the development of various types of UAVs, future conflicts where Russia will be involved will no longer feature Russian military as a “blunt instrument” — the way Russian tech was used in Chechen wars, in Georgia and even in the early stages of the Syrian conflict. If Russia fields the weapons it is currently designing, then it to will join the ranks of high-tech military powers aiming to strike its adversaries with precision. These UCAVs will have a pivotal role in such a construct. C4ISRNET: What are constraints on Russia achieving this vision? BENDETT: Major constraints for Russia to achieve its vision is lack of experience with hi-tech systems — sensors, key electronics, navigation, cameras, etc. Russians have been able to overcome such problems with simpler, smaller drones, but larger MALE/HALE classes are a different story. This led to production and delivery delays, and despite MOD oversight, there was no silver bullet to deal with these issues. Another constraint has been the effect of Western sanctions and Russian ability to import hi-tech systems and components — today's import-substitution effort by Moscow in hi-tech will take time. C4ISRNET: Any last thoughts? BENDETT: As Russia pursues its own version of the “multidomain battle,” unmanned and robotic systems will form key parts of the Russian way of warfare in 2030 and beyond. However, that will depend on the actual capability of the Russian defense sector to field certain unmanned systems. That vision may change based on the reality of producing such systems, given how many T&E and delivery schedules have already been pushed “to the right.” https://www.c4isrnet.com/newsletters/unmanned-systems/2018/12/26/what-does-2019-hold-for-russias-drones

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