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January 8, 2020 | International, Aerospace

Ce qui a changé entre l’échec du Gripen et aujourd'hui

Avions de combat : Le PS, les Verts et le GSsA lancent ce mercredi le référendum contre l'achat de nouveaux jets. Ils étaient parvenus à couler le Gripen en 2014. La situation de départ est cette fois-ci différente.

Ce 18 mai 2014, les bouchons de champagne avaient sauté au stamm de la gauche, à quelques pas de la gare de Berne. Au terme d'une campagne acharnée qui a même fait ensuite l'objet d'un documentaire, «La bataille du Gripen», de Frédéric Gonseth, 53,8% des votants avaient refusé d'acheter 22 avions de combat Gripen pour une somme de 3,126 milliards de francs. Tous les cantons romands avaient dit non.

Cette année, potentiellement en septembre, les citoyens suisses devraient à nouveau se prononcer sur l'achat d'avions de combat. Le Parti socialiste, le Parti écologiste et le Groupe pour une Suisse sans armée (GSsA) lancent le référendum ce mercredi contre l'arrêté de planification qui prévoit d'investir 6 milliards de francs pour acheter de nouveaux jets. Les fronts sont les mêmes qu'en 2014, mais le contexte a changé.

Un vote sur le principe et pas sur un type d'avion

En 2014, le choix d'acheter le Gripen E, modèle en cours de développement, avait suscité la critique et la méfiance. Les détracteurs de ce jet parlaient d'avions de papier. Des membres des forces aériennes s'étaient aussi étonnés, en coulisses, du choix du jet suédois, alors que d'autres avions avaient obtenu de meilleures notes lors de l'évaluation. L'analyse Vox qui avait décortiqué le scrutin avait ainsi montré que 13% des votants avaient mis un non dans l'urne par rejet du Gripen. Cette fois-ci, les Suisses n'auront plus à se prononcer sur un type d'avion. Une seule question leur sera posée: acceptez-vous de payer 6 milliards de francs pour acheter de nouveaux avions de combat? Le Conseil fédéral ne sélectionnera le modèle qu'après le scrutin, sur la base des évaluations conduites par ArmaSuisse. A noter que dans tous les cas, la Suisse n'achètera pas le Gripen: le constructeur Saab a renoncé dès lors qu'il a été écarté des essais en vol et au sol qui ont eu lieu l'an dernier sur la base militaire de Payerne. Il reste ainsi quatre jets en course: le Rafale de Dassault, l'Eurofighter d'Airbus, le Super Hornet de Boeing et le F-35 de Lockheed Martin (voir vidéos de présentation dans l'encadré).

Viola Amherd à la place d'Ueli Maurer

Gaffes en série, couacs de communication, allusions malheureuses: la campagne de 2014 avait été cauchemardesque pour le ministre de la Défense de l'époque, Ueli Maurer (UDC). Six pour cent des votants avaient déclaré, lors de l'analyse Vox, avoir dit non en raison de cette campagne cacophonique. Les électeurs du centre, qui se reconnaissent dans des partis traditionnellement acquis à l'armée, avaient joué un rôle déterminant. Aujourd'hui, c'est une centriste, Viola Amherd, qui est à la manoeuvre. La conseillère fédérale PDC met un accent particulier sur la transparence dans les achats de l'armée. Elle a aussi souhaité amener une caution à la fois scientifique et militaire à ce dossier. Elle a ainsi invité l'astronaute Claude Nicollier à rendre un second avis sur le rapport Air2030. La popularité et l'image de la Haut-Valaisanne joueront un rôle lors de la campagne.

De nouveaux avions sinon rien?

En 2014, le Gripen ne devait remplacer que la flotte des F-5. Les 32 F/A 18 devaient être remplacés dans un second temps. Aujourd'hui, les 30 avions de combat F/A-18 restants sont vieillissants. Il est prévu de prolonger leur durée de vie jusqu'en 2030. Ainsi, la gauche ne pourra pas déployer avec autant d'impact l'un de ses arguments clés de 2014: on peut dire non au Gripen, il reste des avions pour l'armée. A l'époque, selon l'analyse Vox, 24% des détracteurs du Gripen se disaient en effet partisans d'une armée forte, mais ils estimaient aussi que l'achat de ce jet n'était pas une nécessité vitale. Le message sera différent lors de la future campagne. Viola Ahmerd et ses alliés pourront marquer des points en affirmant que le scrutin déterminera la survie des forces aériennes. Fondamentalement, les référendaires ne contestent cela dit pas la nécessité d'avoir des avions mais uniquement pour faire la police du ciel. Ils estiment qu'on peut acheter moins et à un meilleur prix. Leur capacité de convaincre avec cet argument s'annonce déterminante.

Des mesures compensatoires plus basses

C'est une autre différence par rapport au vote de 2014. Les affaires compensatoires - ces contre-prestations exigées de la part du constructeur - se monteront à 60% du prix d'achat des avions. Pour le Gripen, c'était 100%. Sur ce point, la ministre Viola Amherd, critique face aux surcoûts engendrés par ces compensations, s'est imposée au parlement. Les entreprises romandes qui craignaient de ne pas voir la couleur des affaires compensatoires si elles étaient réduites à 60% se disent néanmoins satisfaites: les collaborations seront possibles au-delà du secteur de la sécurité. Elles s'étendront à onze autres domaines, dont celui des machines, de l'électronique ou encore de l'horlogerie.

https://www.24heures.ch/suisse/change-echec-gripen-aujourdhui/story/22057626

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