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July 11, 2023 | Local, Other Defence

Analysis: With Canadians struggling financially, Trudeau can safely ignore calls for more military spending

In the last several years, generals and defence analysts have pushed fantastical scenarios designed to generate fear among the public.

https://ottawacitizen.com/news/national/defence-watch/analysis-with-canadians-struggling-financially-trudeau-can-safely-ignore-calls-for-more-military-spending

On the same subject

  • Conservatives promise to 'protect' defence spending from deficit battle

    October 18, 2019 | Local, Aerospace, Naval, Land, C4ISR, Security

    Conservatives promise to 'protect' defence spending from deficit battle

    Defence takes a fifth of the federal budget and has often been a target for deficit cutters Murray Brewster The Conservatives have pledged to "protect" the budget of the Department of National Defence even as they work to eliminate the federal deficit. In their election platform, the Tories said they would find $5 billion in savings by cutting operational expenses, but were not clear on precisely what that meant, other than to say it would not affect services to Canadians. The Liberals, through their two-year-old defence policy, committed to increase defence spending by 70 per cent to $32 billion annually by 2024-25 — a program that would unfold at precisely the same time a potential Conservative government intends to cut expenditures.​​ The Liberals have also set in motion plans to buy two of the military's biggest-ticket items — new fighter jets and navy frigates. Conservative leader Andrew Scheer said Wednesday his party would stick with those purchases, but would be more efficient. "We are committed to the funding allocated to the Department of National Defence," he said during a campaign stop in in southwestern Ontario. "We will not do what the Liberals did, which is waste hundreds of millions of dollars stopping and starting the procurement process." The Conservatives have pledged to depoliticize the process of buying military equipment and have complained about the Liberal government's delivery timelines and decisions, including the plan to purchase used Australian F-18s to supplement the existing fighter jet force until a decision is made on brand-new warplanes. Says money wasted "They have wasted so much money when it comes to procurement," Scheer said, adding that Conservatives would "protect the budgets of National Defence [and] we're going to ensure that the money that's allocated to National Defence is spent wisely." At least two experts wonder how the Conservatives can live up to that pledge in light of the fact the Defence Department is the single biggest discretionary expense on the federal balance sheet and the last two times Conservatives — or Liberals — tried to balance the budget, military spending took major hits. Under the government of former prime minister Stephen Harper, the defence budget was cut by $2.1 billion annually and the department racked up sizeable chunks of lapsed spending, money that was appropriated by Parliament, but not spent. The reduction took place after the Afghan war and the department faced concurrent spending cuts through the Conservative strategy review and deficit reduction action plan. Both Liberal and Conservative governments in the 1990s cut defence spending and postponed buying new equipment, most notably new maritime helicopters, which only came into service in the last few years Defence spending an obvious target "Balancing a federal budget without looking at defence spending is extraordinarily difficult, to impossible," said Dave Perry, an analyst and expert in defence spending at the Canadian Global Affairs Institute. "Defence spending accounts for one-fifth of the federal budget." And even if the Conservatives did look for savings, a change to the accounting structure at Defence leaves little room for them to recoup much money by cancelling or postponing equipment purchases. Reducing the size of the military or the civil service was something previous governments did, but Perry said those kinds of cuts "take two years or more" to make their way through the system. Kevin Page, the former parliamentary budget officer and CEO of the Institute of Fiscal Studies and Democracy, said much of what all of the parties are proposing — and their ability to deliver — is contingent on the kind of Parliament that is elected on Monday. CANADA VOTES How much will the defence file matter to voters? PBO pushes up cost estimate for Canada's frigate build by $8 billion In a minority government scenario, the Conservatives might find themselves struggling to deliver savings outside of the Defence Department, he suggested. Would need majority "If elected, I would assume the Conservatives would need a majority government to push through the savings on direct program spending – infrastructure, wage bills, other operations, corporate and development assistance," Page said. The Liberal record on defence spending is up for debate. An internal DND slide presentation, obtained by CBC News, lays out projections for the department going to up to the 2036-37 fiscal year. Faced with extraordinary pressure from the Trump administration to meet NATO's goal of earmarking two per cent of gross domestic product for military spending, the Liberal government committed to a 70 per cent increase by 2024-25. The Feb. 25, 2019 slide presentation shows that spending will peak in 2026-27 and begin to fall again in the preceding decade. Used Australian fighter jets could cost $1.1B: Parliamentary budget officer The document also shows that, for two years running, the Liberals have not spent as much as they planned on new equipment. While $12.7 billion was set aside in their plan between 2017-19 for new military gear, the Trudeau government only asked Parliament for permission to spend $8.34 billion — leaving $4.4 billion still in the treasury. The slide presentation said part of the reason is that some existing projects came in under budget, but in one-third of the instances the spending delay was because the Defence Department — or the federal government in general — could not get the projects organized. https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/conservatives-defence-spending-1.5323618

  • Une force spatiale canadienne voit le jour

    July 20, 2022 | Local, Aerospace

    Une force spatiale canadienne voit le jour

    Le Canada aura bientôt officiellement sa force spatiale militaire. Mais attention : ceux qui s’imaginent des soldats en mission dans un champ de bataille céleste vont vite revenir sur terre : « Ce n’est pas aussi excitant que les séries de science-fiction », avertit le futur commandant de cette force, le brigadier général Michael Adamson.

  • How selecting the Lockheed Martin F-35 could impact Canada’s economy

    August 12, 2020 | Local, Aerospace

    How selecting the Lockheed Martin F-35 could impact Canada’s economy

    Posted on August 12, 2020 by Chris Thatcher The Lockheed Martin F-35A Lightning II has long been considered the favourite to replace the Royal Canadian Air Force (RCAF) CF-188 Hornet. But in a competition now being contested in a weakened economy in which the government faces a ballooning deficit and an uncertain job market, how well each fighter jet scores on acquisition and sustainment costs and economic benefits to Canada – worth 40 per cent of the evaluation – could be almost as important as how well the aircraft meets the Air Force's capability requirements. The Joint Striker Fighter (JSF) has become the most expensive weapons program ever for the U.S. Department of Defense and could cost more than US$1 trillion over its 60-year lifespan, according to the New York Times. The Department of National Defence in 2013 estimated the full cost of procuring and operating the F-35A at US$45 billion over 30 years. Others have pegged the number far higher. Furthermore, under the rules of the JSF partnership agreement, to which Canada is a signatory, Lockheed Martin cannot offer traditional industrial and technological benefits (ITBs) to Canadian industry. If company officials are feeling at a disadvantage, they aren't admitting it. “We understand the rules, we understand the way the competition is structured and the requirements,” said Steve Callaghan, Lockheed Martin's vice-president of F-35 development and a former U.S. Navy F-18 squadron commander and Fighter Weapons School instructor. In an online briefing to media on Aug. 6, Callaghan shared the results of an economic impact assessment that suggested selection of the F-35 could impact GDP by almost $17 billion and generate more than 150,000 jobs over the life of the program. Lockheed Martin submitted its 7,000-page bid on July 31 to replace the RCAF's 94 legacy Hornets with 88 F-35A fighters. The proposal is one of three the federal government received at the deadline for a contract valued at up to $19 billion. Boeing's F/A-18E/F Super Hornet and Saab's Gripen E are also in the running. The government may begin negotiations with one or more of the compliant bidders once the initial evaluation is completed, likely by next spring. The final decision is expected in 2022 and first deliveries by 2025. As the RCAF and Public Services and procurement Canada now begin to evaluate the proposals, Lockheed Martin was keen to remind Canadians the F-35A is the only fifth-generation fighter in the competition. “It truly is a generation ahead of any other fighter in production and can be procured for about the same or less than the far less capable fourth-generation aircraft,” said Callaghan. Though the Joint Strike Fighter program was originally launched with the intent of developing a more cost-effective family of aircraft with a shared design and common systems, and high production volume to reduce procurement and sustainment costs, the ambitious program has struggled with high development costs and the final price tag. However, between the second Low Initial Production Rate (LRIP) in 2008 and LRIP 10 in 2016, the cost of an F-35A decreased by about 60 per cent. As Lockheed Martin ramps up to a production rate of about 141 aircraft per year for LRIP 14, its reached a per unit cost of about US$78 million. The aim now is to bring the cost per flight hour down under US$25,000 by 2025. “We are putting that same level of focus, that same level of rigour and innovation to reduce sustainment costs,” said Callaghan. “With ... every flight hour, the enterprise gets smarter, more mature, more effective, more on track to meet several critical performance and affordability targets.” Equally important to a government that will be eying more well-paying jobs in the aerospace sector for decades to come, Callaghan highlighted Canada's involvement in the JSF program. The federal government was the first nation to sign on to the U.S. partnership and to date “more than 110 Canadian companies have contributed to the development and the production of the F-35,” he said, resulting in about US$2 billion in contracts. According to the economic impact study, conducted by Offset Market Exchange (OMX), a Toronto-based firm that helps OEMs develop their Canadian supply chains and provides analytics to ensure compliance with ITB obligations, the full impact of the program between production (2007 and 2046) and sustainment (2026 and 2058) could result in $16.9 billion to Canada's GDP. Though contracts are awarded on a “best value” basis among all participating countries, Canadian companies have proven their ability to compete and deliver quality, he added. And suppliers would be building parts not just for 88 aircraft, but likely for over 3,000. With the F-35 manufactured in the U.S. and many sustainment hubs already selected, several Canadian companies have been raised concerns about access to high-value in-service support work. Though Callaghan wouldn't commit to specifics, he noted that more than 2,500 F-35s could be operating in North America past 2060, resulting in “a large number” of potential sustainment opportunities. “I think Canadian industry is in a very good position to capture quite a few of those contracts,” he said. If Canada opts for another aircraft, the current contracts would be honoured “to their conclusion,” but would then be placed up for best value bids to JSF nations, he added. Though Lockheed Martin is still ramping up production and addressing software issues, the F-35 is a rapidly maturing program. Over 550 aircraft have been delivered and the entire fleet has accumulated over 300,000 flight hours. Eight services, including five outside of the U.S., have declared initial operating capability and the Royal Australian Air Force is expected to do so before the end of 2020. F-35s have been part of operations and joint and international exercises. Both Norway and Italy have conducted NATO Iceland air policing with their fleets. “These are indications of the maturity of the program,” said Callaghan. “We are a mature program that is really hitting stride.” https://www.skiesmag.com/news/f-35-impact-canadas-economy/

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