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December 7, 2020 | International, Aerospace, Naval, Land, C4ISR, Security

America sold $175 billion in weapons abroad in FY20

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WASHINGTON — The U.S. sold $175 billion in weapons to foreign partners and allies in fiscal 2020, a 2.8 percent rise from the previous year's total, according to a Friday announcement from the Defense and State departments.

The total comes at the end of the Trump administration, which made increasing arms exports a key part of its economic growth platform.

Export licenses via the Direct Commercial Sales program totaled $124.3 billion in FY20, up from $114.7 billion the previous year. A series of reforms, started under the Obama administration and continued under the Trump team, has pushed more defense articles into the commercial sales realm.

Deals made through the Foreign Military Sales program, which cover the majority of large defense articles, totaled $50.78 billion. Of that total, $44.79 billion came in payments from partner nations, $3.3 billion from Foreign Military Financing, and $2.69 billion for cases funded under Defense Department Title 10 grant assistance programs, such as train and equip programs.

The FMS total represents an 8 percent drop from FY19. In FY17, the U.S. sold $41.93 billion in FMS deals. That number jumped a dramatic 33 percent in FY18 to $55.6 billion, then dipped slightly to $55.4 billion in FY19.

Despite back-to-back years without growth, officials expressed optimism, pointing to the three-year rolling average of implemented FMS cases — which rose from $51 billion covering FY17-FY19 to $54 billion covering FY18-FY20 — as a sign of overall growth.

Officials have historically argued that the volatility of the year-to-year FMS process means that the three-year average is the best indicator of overall growth or decline, as it captures sales that implemented late in one fiscal year or early in the next.

The total of official sales is different from the total number of FMS cases cleared by the State Department. The latter figure — 68 cases worth $83.5 billion, the highest annual total of FMS notifications since the start of the Trump administration — is a good indicator of future sales, but quantities and dollar figures often change during negotiations.

While industry will cheer the sales total, William Hartung of the Center for International Policy warned that the total may be questionable.

“It is important to note that this is a vastly inflated figure if one is looking for statistics on sales that are actually likely to eventuate in contracts and deliveries,” according to Hartung. “There are many steps along the way in which an authorized sale can be sidetracked, including, for example, changes in demand and economic capacity on the part of potential customers.

“The truth is we do not have reliable figures from the Pentagon or the State Department on how much weaponry the United States delivers each year, and what items have been delivered to what countries. Without this information, it is difficult to fully assess the impact of U.S. arms exports.”

https://www.defensenews.com/pentagon/2020/12/04/american-sold-175-billion-in-weapons-abroad-in-fy20

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  • Japan focuses on maritime security in new ocean policy

    May 15, 2018 | International, Aerospace, Naval, C4ISR, Security

    Japan focuses on maritime security in new ocean policy

    Japan approved Tuesday a new ocean policy that highlights maritime security, amid perceived growing threats from North Korea and China, in a reversal from the previous version which focused largely on sea resource development. The ocean program cited threats from North Korea's launching of ballistic missiles, and operations by Chinese vessels around the Japan-controlled and China-claimed Senkaku Islands in the East China Sea. “Amid an increasingly severe maritime situation, the government will come together to protect our territorial waters and interests at sea,” Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said in a meeting of the government panel on ocean policy. The contents of the third Basic Plan on Ocean Policy are expected to be reflected in the government's defense buildup guidelines that are set to be revised in December. Since its first adoption in 2008, the ocean policy has been reviewed every five years. The policy pointed out that the maritime security situation facing the nation is “highly likely to deteriorate, if no measure is taken.” The government also plans to make use of coastal radar equipment, aircraft and vessels from the Self-Defense Forces and the Japan Coast Guard, as well as high-tech optical satellites of the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency, to strengthen the nation's intelligence gathering abilities. The policy underscores the need for cooperation between the coast guard and the Fisheries Agency to enhance responses to illegal operations by North Korea and fishing vessels from other countries, amid a surge in the number of such cases in the waters surrounding Japan. To ensure sea lane safety, it also stipulates the government's promotion of the “free and open Indo-Pacific” strategy advocated by Abe for maintaining and strengthening a free and open order in the region based on the rule of law. https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2018/05/15/national/politics-diplomacy/japan-focuses-maritime-security-new-ocean-policy

  • US Air Force chief’s top modernization priorities aren’t what you think they are

    November 18, 2020 | International, Aerospace

    US Air Force chief’s top modernization priorities aren’t what you think they are

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Meanwhile, the Air Force awarded Northrop a $13 billion contract for the GBSD program in September. Although the legacy Minuteman III ICBMs won't begin to be retired and replaced until 2029, it will be Brown's job to ensure the program stays on track and gets the funding it needs during the pivotal early days of its engineering and manufacturing development stage. Aside from major delivery systems, the Air Force is also pursuing a dual-capable air-launched cruise missile: the Long Range Standoff Missile. The Air Force is responsible for two legs of the nuclear triad — intercontinental ballistic missiles and nuclear bombers — with the Navy responsible for ballistic missile submarines. With the Navy currently replacing its current Ohio-class ballistic missile submarines with the Columbia class, all of the nation's major nuclear modernization bills will be coming to a head around the same time. That may create pressure on the Air Force's and the Navy's budgets in the coming years, especially as spending is projected to flatten. But the services have contended there is no time to waste when it comes to nuclear modernization — all programs must stay on schedule. 2. Advanced Battle Management System Like his predecessor, now-retired Gen. Dave Goldfein, Brown wants the Air Force's shooters and sensors to be able to instantaneously share data with the joint force — a concept the military has termed Combined Joint All-Domain Command and Control. Brown's second priority, the Advanced Battle Management System, is the Air Force's effort to field a series of technologies that will make CJADC2 a reality. “I look at ABMS [as critical] because that's going to help us enable our decision-making and how we contribute to Joint All-Domain Command and Control,” Brown said. (The “C” in the concept's name was recently added.) However, Brown acknowledged the service has more work to do to convince lawmakers of the viability of the ABMS program. The Air Force envisions ABMS as a family of systems — think everything from cloud computing technologies, artificial intelligence algorithms and smart devices alongside traditional communications gear like radios. Instead of issuing exact requirements, the service wants to test what industry has available in a series of “on ramp” exercises, eventually buying what works after technologies are customized to meet user needs. Congress, however, has been skeptical. While the Air Force requested $302 million for the program in fiscal 2021, the House and Senate Appropriations committees would subtract anywhere from $50 million to almost $100 million from that sum, citing concerns about the service's acquisition strategy and lack of detailed requirements. “That's feedback to me, feedback to the Air Force that something is maybe being lost in the translation,” Brown said. “We're doing this a bit different than we have done a traditional acquisition program. ... And for us, for the Hill, it is a bit different. I think it's an area that we, as an Air Force, do need to do a little bit better job of how we talk it up.” 3. Cutting-edge acquisition methods Brown's third modernization priority isn't a program at all: He wants to see continued advancements in new acquisition methods that allow the Air Force to more quickly buy new equipment at lower prices. Currently, “by the time [new technology] gets to the hands of the war fighter, the software that's in it is a decade or two decades or 15 years old. How are we able to do things a bit faster in that regard?” Brown said. He pointed to advanced manufacturing processes like digital engineering, which employs detailed data and models during the design of a product, and simulates how it will be manufactured, tested, operated and sustained throughout its life cycle. Air Force acquisition executive Will Roper has heralded techniques like digital engineering for enabling the rapid development and recent first flight of a full-scale demonstrator aircraft, which was tested as part of the service's Next Generation Air Dominance program. Roper told Defense News in September that it will be up to Brown and other Air Force leaders to decide whether it's worth buying into the Digital Century Series plan for NGAD, which would involve the service more rapidly purchasing small batches of aircraft from various manufacturers. While Brown didn't comment on whether the Air Force has committed to the Digital Century Series model for purchasing future combat jets, he cited the approach as one that could potentially speed up the fielding of new technologies. “If we keep doing the same approach we have since I've been in the Air Force and expect a different result, then we're not going to do very well,” Brown said. “We have to change our approach. And this drives change in our thinking, change about how we think about acquisition, it changes how we as an Air Force engage with and collaborate with [the Office of the Secretary of Defense], with [the Pentagon's Cost Assessment and Program Evaluation office], with the Hill, with industry. And, you know, I think we've gotten some traction in certain areas, but it's going to require constant dialogue and collaboration and transparency.” https://www.defensenews.com/air/2020/11/17/the-air-force-chiefs-top-modernization-priorities-arent-what-you-think-they-are/

  • Scandal-ridden Ukroboronprom seeks fresh start in ties with Western arms makers

    May 20, 2020 | International, Land

    Scandal-ridden Ukroboronprom seeks fresh start in ties with Western arms makers

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You know, Ukroboronprom for years has had a tainted reputation,” Abromavicius said at an event hosted by the Atlantic Council. “So it is very clear that almost no Western company of any reputation and size is interested in directly acquiring any assets in the defense sector in Ukraine because of the reputational risks.” That is one of the many reasons Abromavicius is pushing reforms of the company, whose questionable reputation was further damaged by a massive scandal in 2019 involving executives receiving kickbacks on parts smuggled in from Russia. The scandal rocked Ukrainian politics, with some arguing it was a major factor in the loss of the presidency by Petro Poroshenko. President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, inaugurated in May 2019, launched an effort to clean up the mess, which included appointing Abromavicius, a former minister of economy and trade, to oversee a reorganization of the company. Abromavicius, who is pushing a full financial audit of the company alongside a potential reorg of its business units, stressed that “we need to raise governance standards to completely different levels,” factoring in increased transparency, if the company is to have any hope of working with nations abroad. And, he said, Ukroboronprom needs partnerships to survive as anything other than a local, small concern. “The way forward for us is to do joint ventures,” Abromavicius said. “Obviously the way forward is just to set up production facilities in Turkey, in India, you now, United Arab Emirates, whereby our [intellectual property] and their financial resources [combine] together to produce for the domestic and global needs.” While acknowledging that U.S. firms are reluctant to work with Ukroboronprom given its history, such a tie-up would be cheap for any of the major American defense companies, said the Atlantic Council's Michael Carpenter. And, he warned, the American government may soon have a major geopolitical incentive to try and push a Lockheed Martin or Raytheon to work with the Ukrainians. “With the economic chaos that's being wrought by the COVID-19 pandemic, I predict you will see China moving into a lot of countries in Eastern Europe and looking to buy up distressed assets at bargain prices, and it's going to be crucial that when Ukroboronprom looks for outside investors or looks for doing joint ventures, that U.S defense industry is poised to partner, and to invest,” Carpenter said. “It's going to be very important for, I think, the U.S. government also to push our defense industry a little bit to look at this as an opportunity,” continued Carpenter. “It's going to be important from a sort of strategic sense not to allow this industrial base to get snapped up by Chinese or other countries that are going to be, frankly, operating in a predatory manner in the months ahead, and that we allow for that matchmaking, not just with U.S. firms but with European firms as well to go forward.” While not directly tied to defense matters, Boeing is reportedly considering some sort of team up with Antonov on the cargo side, with the Ukranians pushing for a formal joint venture. Beijing, meanwhile, has attempted major inroads in Ukraine, with Chinese aerospace firm Skyrizon attempting to purchase a controlling stake in engine manufacturer Motor Sich and the Tianjiao Aviation Industry Investment Company attempting to purchase a chunk of the Antonov facility which produced the An-225 Mriya. China has emerged as a major economic trading partner with Ukraine in the years since Kyiv cut off relations with Russia. (Antonov falls under the Ukroboronprom umbrella.) Pentagon acquisition head Ellen Lord has warned several times since the COVID-19 pandemic began that the DoD needs to be keeping an eye on both the domestic and foreign defense industry, with the expectation China will attempt to use the economic downturn to its advantage. “Western allies took a backseat, ignored the Ukrainian defense sector, and you know, [the] Chinese stepped in and snapped up the best of the private companies in this sector in Ukraine,” said Abromavicius. “So I would urge, obviously, our allies to take a better look at the defense sector which is being reformed right now in Ukraine. And, you know, show us, show more interest in doing things together.” While Zelenskiy came into office promising major reforms to the country, activists have accused his government of stalling out on many of the promised efforts. Abromavicius “fully” acknowledged that the reorganization of Ukroboronprom has slowed recently, saying he hopes Western officials can “give it a kick” to get things moving again, but he expressed his hope that in the coming weeks there may be legislative action. “So it is a bit too early to say that we have a full support, because I say that everybody and their dog has its own view of what Ukroboronprom reform should look like,” he said. “And I think overall, the Defense and Security Committee is a strong supporter, Ministry of the Economy is a strong supporter, I believe that president's offices as well. And I hope that Ministry of Defense is on our side” soon, he said. https://www.defensenews.com/global/europe/2020/05/20/scandal-ridden-ukroboronprom-seeks-fresh-start-in-ties-with-western-arms-makers

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