16 juillet 2020 | International, Aérospatial

SCAF-Tempest: nouvelle guerre d'avions de combat européens en vue

Par Vincent Lamigeon le 15.07.2020 à 15h04

Un rapport du Sénat sur le projet d'avion de combat franco-allemand SCAF juge peu probable une fusion du programme avec le projet britannique concurrent Tempest. Une nouvelle guerre intestine de type Rafale-Eurofighter ferait le bonheur de la concurrence américaine.

On connaissait la guerre intestine Rafale-Eurofighter. Il va peut-être falloir s'habituer à son remake, l'affrontement SCAF-Tempest. Dans un rapport sur le projet d'avion de combat franco-allemand SCAF (Système de combat aérien du futur) publié le 15 juillet, les sénateurs Hélène Conway-Mouret et Ronan Le Gleut estiment hautement improbable la fusion du programme avec son concurrent britannique Tempest, lui aussi prévu pour une entrée en service en 2035-2040. "Pour le moment, les deux projets n'ont aucune intersection", estiment les rapporteurs, soulignant que "l'intérêt réciproque" à un rapprochement est "de moins en moins marqué". "Les Britanniques semblent d'ailleurs beaucoup moins effrayés que nous à l'idée d'une concurrence intra-européenne", assure Hélène Conway-Mouret.

De fait, chacun des deux programmes avance de son côté. Lancé par Paris et Berlin en juillet 2017, le SCAF a été rejoint par l'Espagne mi-2018. Le projet vise le développement d'un nouvel avion de combat (NGF, pour New Generation Fighter), de drones d'accompagnement ("remote carriers", ou effecteurs déportés) et d'un "cloud de combat" destiné à faire fonctionner ces engins en réseau. Après d''pres négociations, Paris et Berlin ont signé début 2020 un premier contrat de recherche et technologies (R&T). D'un montant de 155 millions d'euros, il a permis de lancer les travaux préparatoires au développement d'un démonstrateur à l'horizon 2026. Dassault, Airbus Defence & Space, Safran, MTU, Thales, MBDA et l'espagnol Indra figurent notamment parmi les industriels retenus.

Italie et Suède dans la "Team Tempest"

En réaction à ce projet, le Royaume-Uni a annoncé en juillet 2018 le développement de son propre avion de combat du futur, baptisé Tempest. De premiers travaux ont été confiés à une équipe d'industriels britanniques ou très implantés outre-Manche (BAE, Rolls-Royce, Leonardo, MBDA). Londres cherche désormais à attirer dans la "Team Tempest" des pays comme l'Italie, la Suède, mais aussi le Japon, la Turquie et l'Arabie Saoudite. Stockholm et Rome ont déjà, plus ou moins officiellement, rejoint le projet. "C'était une évidence pour nous de choisir cette option au lieu d'attendre quelques années pour obtenir une fraction du programme franco-allemand", assurait le 15 juillet dans le Financial Times Micael Johansson, le directeur général du groupe suédois Saab.

Pour les sénateurs, une fusion des deux projets semble donc chaque jour moins probable, d'abord pour raisons industrielles. "La négociation pour la répartition des t'ches entre les grands leaders industriels au sein d'un seul et même projet, en particulier Airbus, Dassault, BAE, Thales et Leonardo, serait très complexe", souligne le rapport. Un rapprochement serait "encore plus difficile si le projet britannique parvient à une véritable internationalisation, en particulier avec l'entrée de la Turquie et/ou de l'Arabie Saoudite, voire du Japon", écrivent les sénateurs.

Le scénario de deux avions concurrents, déjà éprouvé depuis 30 ans avec la lutte Rafale-Eurofighter, serait une catastrophe pour la défense européenne. "Il n'est pas certain que l'Europe pourra s'offrir deux systèmes de combat aérien du futur concurrents, avec une base d'exportation nécessairement plus étroite, surtout lorsque les conséquences économiques de la crise du coronavirus se seront fait pleinement sentir", écrivent Hélène Conway-Mouret et Ronan Le Gleut. La concurrence s'annonce frontale: le projet Tempest ambitionne une entrée en service en 2035, soit cinq ans avant le SCAF. Si ce calendrier est jugé "extrêmement ambitieux" par le rapport, le Sénat appelle néanmoins à profiter des plans de relance européens pour accélérer le calendrier du projet franco-allemand, et le rapprocher de la date de 2035.

Le cap du milliard d'euros

La concurrence du Tempest n'est pas la seule menace pour le programme SCAF. Avec seulement 155 millions d'euros de contrats signés, pour un montant total estimé entre 50 et 80 milliards d'euros, le projet n'est pas encore irréversible, soulignent les rapporteurs. Le Bundestag allemand est en droit de valider chaque tranche de 25 millions d'euros d'investissement, ce qui a déjà ralenti l'avancée du projet et menace les travaux futurs. Pour éviter cet écueil, les rapporteurs préconisent la signature d'un contrat-cadre global dès début 2021, pour graver dans le marbre le lancement du démonstrateur en 2026. "Il faudrait passer à un plus d'un milliard d'euros investis, idéalement 2 milliards, pour rendre le programme irréversible", estime Ronan Le Gleut.

Autre menace pour l'avion de combat franco-allemand: l'inefficacité du fameux principe européen dit du "retour géographique", qui prévoit que les Etats partenaires reçoivent une charge industrielle proportionnelle à leur investissement. Cette vieille doxa européenne aboutit, comme sur le programme A400M, au choix d'industriels en fonction de leur passeport, et pas forcément de leurs compétences. Sans sacrifier totalement ce principe, le Sénat appelle donc à privilégier la doctrine dite du "best athlete" (meilleur athlète), selon laquelle c'est l'acteur le plus compétent qui est choisi, quelle que soit sa nationalité.

Pour autant, Paris ne doit pas l'cher ses champions nationaux, industriels comme organismes publics, estime le rapport. Les sénateurs préconisent de veiller à la charge confiée aux PME et ETI françaises, et à confier au plus vite des contrats sur le SCAF à l'Onera, le laboratoire français de l'aérospatial. A l'inverse de son homologue allemand, le DLR, celui-ci est pour l'instant largement délaissé. "L'Onera doit participer au programme à la hauteur de son excellence reconnue par tous", indiquent les rapporteurs. Dans une interview à Challenges publiée le 22 juin, le président de l'Onera Bruno Sainjon espérait la signature de contrats SCAF en 2021.

M88 contre J200

Les rapporteurs se veulent aussi vigilants sur la motorisation du futur démonstrateur du SCAF, qui doit voler en en 2026. Ils poussent au choix du moteur M88, développé par Safran, dans une version plus puissante que celle qui équipe actuellement le Rafale. C'était le scénario privilégié depuis le départ du programme, et un choix logique au vu du statut de maître d'oeuvre de Safran sur le moteur du SCAF. Mais les rapporteurs ont découvert qu'une autre option envisagée serait de choisir le moteur J200... qui équipe l'Eurofighter Typhoon. "Ce ne serait pas le bon choix, assure Ronan Le Gleut. Safran est le meilleur." Reste à voir si l'allemand MTU et l'espagnol ITP, qui participent à la fabrication du J200, sont du même avis.

https://www.challenges.fr/entreprise/defense/scaf-tempest-la-nouvelle-guerre-des-avions-de-combat-europeens_719510

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