Industry, nations hope to cash in on unmanned ground vehicle growth

By: Aaron Mehta

WASHINGTON — With the presence of drones ubiquitous in the skies, industry and international partners are turning their eyes closer to earth in an attempt to cash in on a growing sector: unmanned ground vehicles.

“UGV market growth has historically been slow and steady, mostly S&T and niche procurements. What we're seeing now is an inflection point,” said Joshua Pavluk, a principal with Avascent. “There's a lot of activity happening and several DoD new starts happening nearly all at once.”

That inflection point is partly the result of improved autonomy and navigation opening up opportunities, Pavluk said. But there is also a desire to see how these systems can transition from sole-mission capabilities, such as explosive ordnance disposal, to multi-mission systems capable of doing ISR, EW and communications.

According to a report from the Center for the Study of the Drone at Bard College, total spending for ground drones in FY19 was set at $429 million, of which only $86 million is for procurement — DoD planned to buy 134 new systems during the fiscal year — and the rest for research and development. That pales in comparison to the $6.05 billion the Pentagon planned to spend on UAVs, and half the expected $982 million in naval drones.

But that number shows steady growth, doubling in just two years from $212 million in FY17 and $310 million in FY18. And while explosive ordnance disposal systems still represent the biggest spending from the Army in this arena, it will likely be overtaken by programs such as the Army Common Robotic Systems and Robotic Ground System Advanced Technology Development.

“The market won't match overall UAS spending levels anytime soon, but it's fast growing, and there's opportunity for the taking,” Pavluk said.

However, Michael Blades, an analyst with Frost and Sullivan, is more subdued in his predictions.

“It's a significant market and it is growing, but not at the levels of sea or air systems, or even counter-drone capabilities,” Blades said. “We will see some unmanned-unmanned teaming between UAS and UGV, but the land market for unmanned will be orders of magnitude smaller than the markets for air and maritime.”

From a competition standpoint, Blades sees “the usual suspects” who are already in the market continuing to dominate in the coming years. And internationally, there are only a few players, with the market largely dominated by Israel.

Could that change in the future? The international market generally lags behind the U.S. on such capabilities, Pavluk said, but he noted that “other countries will get in on the act, and it doesn't have to be large ones” to try and participate.

Full article: https://www.defensenews.com/digital-show-dailies/ausa/2018/10/09/industry-nations-hope-to-cash-in-on-unmanned-ground-vehicle-growth