7 novembre 2018 | International, Aérospatial, Naval, Terrestre, C4ISR, Sécurité

Coopérations dans l'armement : la France peut-elle vraiment faire confiance à l'Allemagne ? (1/3)

Par Michel Cabirol

La France et l'Allemagne ont à l'évidence des enjeux et des objectifs différents. La coopération franco-allemande est-elle assise sur des bases saines ? Pas sûr.

La France peut-elle vraiment faire confiance à l'Allemagne en matière de politique de défense et d'armement? Pas sûr si l'on en croit le député LREM du Finistère, Jean-Charles Larsonneur, qui jette un pavé dans la mare avec son rapport sur le programme 146 (Equipement des forces et dissuasion) : "L'approfondissement, sans grande publicité et, pour ainsi dire, à bas bruit, du concept de nation-cadre de l'OTAN, consiste à fédérer autour de l'Allemagne les capacités de 17 « petits » pays, ce qui risque de réduire l'intérêt des Allemands pour nos coopérations bilatérales", a-t-il expliqué le 24 octobre à l'Assemblée nationale.

L'Allemagne se place dans une volonté de leadership en Europe dans le domaine de la défense, qu'elle a très clairement exprimé dans son Livre Blanc de 2016 et dans sa stratégie dans le domaine des technologies clés. D'ailleurs, l'un des plus influents think tank d'Allemagne, la Stiftung für Wissenschaft und Politik (SWP), synthétise parfaitement la stratégie allemande. Il préconisait en août 2017 que Berlin prenne le leadership militaire de l'Union européenne, et de devenir le pilier européen de l'OTAN en raison du futur désengagement américain. "La Bundeswehr pourrait devenir une épine dorsale de la sécurité européenne à long terme, affirmait la SWP. (...) Cela exige de la volonté du futur gouvernement fédéral d'accepter un leadership politique et militaire dans l'alliance".

Un avantage puissant pour l'industrie allemande

L'Allemagne a effectivement su se saisir du concept de nation-cadre ("Framework Nation Concept"- FNC) élaboré par l'OTAN à son initiative à partir de 2012. De fait, l'Allemagne, qui a mis en œuvre ce concept, s'est entourée, en tant que nation-cadre, de 19 États membres pour mettre en œuvre des projets de coopération très approfondis, tendant à une véritable intégration pour certains d'entre eux (Pays-Bas notamment). Et pour de nombreux observateurs, ce concept va se révéler être un rouleau compresseur en faveur des intérêts industriels germaniques. C'est un "instrument stratégique qui pourrait servir puissamment les intérêts de l'industrie allemande", a confirmée Jean-Charles Larsonneur.

Pourquoi ? Selon Antoine Bouvier, cité dans le rapport du député, l'interpénétration des enjeux capacitaires et opérationnels est profonde. Ainsi, les États partenaires de l'Allemagne ont souscrit l'engagement de porter au standard le plus élevé leurs capacités des chars de combat, ce qui constitue une "formidable opportunité pour KMW ". Cette opportunité est par nature d'autant plus grande que l'intégration des capacités militaires concernées est poussée. Ainsi, l'armée de terre néerlandaise ne pourrait désormais plus être déployée sans la Bundeswehr, tant leur intégration capacitaire est profonde. L'Allemagne, dans ce schéma, tient un rôle d'intégrateur des capacités européennes. Cette ambition s'appuie sur des ressources budgétaires à la hausse : augmentation de 34,3 milliards d'euros en 2016 à 42,9 milliards en 2019 (soit 1,31% du PIB).

"Le concept de nation-cadre se constitue de fait comme le pilier européen de l'Alliance ‒ aux yeux d'Américains, mieux vaut voir l'Europe de la défense se constituer dans un cadre de l'OTAN, bien connu, plutôt que dans des constructions européennes moins maîtrisées par eux", a expliqué Jean-Charles Larsonneur dans son rapport.

Le SCAF en danger?

Un accord politique a été trouvé au plus haut niveau le 13 juillet 2017, formalisé par des lettres d'intention au printemps 2018. Il est convenu que la France aura un rôle prééminent dans la conduite du programme SCAF. Symétriquement, il est entendu que l'Allemagne en aura un dans la conduite du projet de char du futur tout comme elle a obtenu le leadership sur le futur drone MALE européen. Selon Jean-Charles Larsonneur, les industriels français et allemands ne disposent toujours pas d'un cadre réglementaire, ne serait-ce que pour échanger des informations. "Il ressort de mes travaux que la DGA attend des réponses de son équivalent allemand", a-t-il révélé.

"Il est donc urgent de poser des jalons aussi irréversibles que possible dans la coopération franco-allemande, tant que le contexte politique le permet", a-t-il affirmé.

Jean-Charles Larsonneur est inquiet sur la coopération franco-allemande. "La coopération franco-allemande présente en ce moment quelques signes de flottement", a-t-il estimé à l'Assemblée nationale. Il a cité en exemple la décision des Allemands de décliner la proposition française de développer en commun un missile européen pour le nouveau standard du Tigre, au profit d'un missile israélien, le Spike, comme l'avait révélé La Tribune. Mais selon Antoine Bouvier, le nouveau Spike LR2 n'est qu'au début de son développement et comporte donc des risques technologiques. "Le choix des Allemands pour une joint venture entre Rafael, fabricant israélien du Spike, et RheinMettall ‒ dont le rôle dans ce programme ne paraît d'ailleurs pas être dominant ‒ ne s'explique donc pas principalement par des considérations techniques", a précisé le rapport du député du Finistère.

Le concept de nation-cadre permet également à l'Allemagne d'avancer discrètement ses pions dans le domaine des sous-marins. Après avoir fait céder la Norvège (membre du FNC), Berlin tente désormais de séduire la Pologne et les Pays-Bas en vantant un cluster européen sous-marin sous tutelle allemande. Ce qui marginaliserait clairement la France en Europe. En février 2017, la Norvège a commandé quatre U-212 et doit développer avec Berlin un partenariat à vocation mondiale dans le domaine des missiles mer-mer et des systèmes de traitement de l'information. La décision d'Oslo d'interrompre l'appel d'offres et de choisir une évolution du sous-marin en service dans la Marine allemande dans le cadre d'une coopération opérationnelle et industrielle renforcée, risque de faire t'ches d'huile en Europe... La France est en danger.

https://www.latribune.fr/entreprises-finance/industrie/aeronautique-defense/cooperations-dans-l-armement-la-france-peut-elle-vraiment-faire-confiance-a-l-allemagne-1-3-795987.html

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