As US Navy rethinks its fleet, Ingalls Shipbuilding faces uncertain future

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  10 septembre 2020 | International, Aérospatial

  GBSD, B-21 Spending Could Top $10B In 2027: Cowen Group

  B-21 production costs, the Cowen analysis finds, will ramp up fast, from $202 million in 2022 to $4 billion in 2027. By THERESA HITCHENSon September 09, 2020 at 6:05 PM WASHINGTON: The Air Force's combined spending on the Ground Based Strategic Deterrent (GBSD) and the B-21 bomber is likely to triple by 2027 to some $10.2 billion annually, as production begins to ramp up under both programs, the Cowen Washington Research Group estimates. The $13.3 billion GBSD contract, announced yesterday by the Air Force, covers engineering, manufacturing and development (EMD) of the new ICBMs through 2029. The Cowen analysis, out today, notes that while the contract announcement does not explain whether LRIP is included, it can be assumed. This is because Air Force budget justification documents detail plans for “five option years” under the contract to include “early production and deployment,” author Roman Schweizer explains. GBSD, which will replace the aging LGM-30G Minuteman III missiles that first became operational in 1970, represents one third of DoD's top priority nuclear modernization effort. The third leg of the modernization program is the Navy's planned buy of 12 new Columbia-class nuke-launching submarines, which the Pentagon's 2021 budget documents estimate to cost $110 billion to buy. The Congressional Budget Office in 2019 estimated the price tag for the total DoD triad modernization effort at $234 billion through 2028. This ginormous price tag does not include spending by the Energy Department to build the nuclear warheads that would be carried by DoD's ICBMs, bombers and subs. Northrop Grumman was the sole bidder for the GBSD program following Boeing's decision last year to drop out over concerns about Northrop's acquisition of one of the two makers of solid rocket motors in the country, Orbital ATK. Cowen estimates that research and development spending for GBSD will jump from $1.5 billion in 2021, peaking at $3.07 billion in 2024, and decreasing to $1.9 billion in 2027. Production, the analysis says, will begin in 2027 with a budget of $2 billion. The Air Force's press release yesterday says that it expects to begin deploying GBSD in late 2020. For the B-21, the analysis estimates that R&D spending will steadily decline from the $2.8 billion in the Air Force's 2021 request to $1.2 billion in 2027. But production costs, the analysis finds, will ramp up: from $202 million in 2022 to $4 billion in 2027. The analysis is largely based on Air Force budget estimates through 2025, and Schweizer's own projections. Of course, this means the numbers are squishy. That's especially true for the B-21, whose program is highly classified. Indeed, the number of B-21 bombers the Air Force intends to buy, originally set at 100, remains unclear. As Breaking D readers know, senior service officials have been hinting loudly that they need more. In addition, unit costs for the stealth bomber's production are also classified. Way back in 2015, when the Air Force awarded Northrop Grumman the B-21 contract, it put a cap on the Average Production Unit Cost per aircraft of $550 million in 2010 dollars. “The APUC from the independent estimate supporting today's award is $511 million per aircraft, again in 2010 dollars,” the release added. No updated assessments have been released. Several high officials have said the program is on budget and on schedule, without providing any details. Finally, the production schedule and the count of how many are to be built each year, is classified, along with the planned annual procurement costs. That said, our colleagues at Bloomberg reported in February that internal Air Force budget documents show procurement starting in 2022 budgeted at $193 million. That jumps to $4.3 billion in 2025. Schweizer said in an email that his estimates are based on those numbers, and that the projections for 2026 and 2027 are his own. Cowen's analysis notes that Congress is by and large supportive of both efforts. While some have fretted that presidential candidate Joe Biden might reconsider building the GBSD, the document says that is not likely. After all, the Obama administration, during which Biden served as Veep, actually started the program. https://breakingdefense.com/2020/09/gbsd-b-21-spending-could-top-10b-in-2027-cowen-group

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  8 juin 2023 | International, Aérospatial

  Italy-Azerbaijan energy talks spawn C-27J aircraft sales for Leonardo

  Rome's defense ministry is increasingly seen as going to bat for state-owned defense contractors Leonardo and Fincantieri to advance sales.

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  1 août 2019 | International, Aérospatial

  France Creates Space Command To Help Bid To Be Third Space Power

  By Thierry Dubois Luch Olymp, a Russian satellite, is French Armed Forces Minister Florence Parly's favorite enemy. Last year, she revealed it had, in 2017, moved into close proximity to Athena-Fidus—a Franco-Italian satellite used for military communications—and tried to intercept its signal. The French military have kept a close eye on Luch Olymp. “I can't resist telling you the latest—it left a business card to another eight satellites belonging to various countries,” she says. The French government uses Luch Olymp as an example of the mounting threats against the country's space-based assets. A feeling of vulnerability was the basis for the government's decision, announced last year, to devise a space defense strategy. Now officially unveiled, it includes developing patrol satellites and space-based directed-energy weapons. The move confirms the trend for nations to consider space as an additional theater of operations for future conflicts. In the U.S., President Donald Trump signed off on a detailed plan on how to organize military space in February. The document, dubbed Space Policy Directive-4, proposes the creation of a sixth military service focused on space. The House and Senate are in agreement that a separate space service is necessary, but they are at odds on the details. Both chambers will enter conference this summer to hash out the specifics and are hopeful an agreement will be reached this fall. Last year, a report on worldwide threats to Congress stated that Russian and Chinese anti-satellite (ASAT) weapons would probably become operational within the next few years. “Both countries also are advancing directed-energy weapons technologies for the purpose of fielding ASAT weapons that could blind or damage sensitive space-based optical sensors, such as those used for remote sensing or missile defense.” Referring to China and the U.S., Parly says she believes in France asserting itself as the world's third space power. A space command with an initial 220 personnel will be created Sept. 1. One of its roles will be to establish French space doctrine. The operations center of the space command is to open in 2024 in Toulouse, where it is expected to benefit from local synergies with the space industry. As the space command will be part of the French Air Force, the latter is to become the Air and Space Force (Armee de l'Air et de l'Espace). The space command to be integrated into the air force will replace the existing Joint Space Command, created in 2010. The Joint Space Command did help French forces with their space ambitions, says Parly. However, it is believed not to be effective because of a lack of unity in the command chain and the development of a military space policy, as well as geographically scattered sites. “Space is a new front,” Parly says. She earlier requested the integration of cameras into the Syracuse 4A and 4B communications satellites, due to be launched in the early 2020s. The cameras will monitor the satellites' close environment. Parly wants to see nanosatellites patrolling in orbit as soon as 2023. They will be used to detect threats and may also carry high-power lasers. Such weapons, which may also be integrated into France's “valuable” satellites, will be able to “dazzle” a threatening spacecraft, says Parly. France is behind in high-power lasers, she admits, but she is confident the country's research laboratories and OEMs will catch up. In fact, aerospace research center ONERA has already conducted a test that temporarily made inoperative the optical sensors of an Earth-observation satellite at the end of its life. According to a report by two members of the French National Assembly, ONERA could build a system that would make such sensors inoperative permanently. ONERA is also taking part in the TALOS project. Launched last year by the European Defense Agency to create high-power laser beam weapons, TALOS is led by CILAS, an ArianeGroup subsidiary. Other ideas for “active defense” include repurposing systems currently developed under a European Space Agency program to remove debris from orbit, using a net or harpoon. France's military programming law for 2019-25 already includes €3.6 billion ($4 billion) for the renewal of satellites—such as launching the CSO Earth-observation satellites. Parly announced another €700 million will be added over that period. They will be used, among other expenditures, to create demonstrators. “Full capacity” of the space command is expected in 2030. On the ground, the existing Graves radar, which monitors low Earth orbit, will be upgraded in 2022. Parly has requested its successor deliver an initial operational capability in 2025, sooner than initially planned. Eventually, it will have to detect an object “the size of a shoe box” at 1,500 km (930 mi.). Debris is a concern, as well as illegal launches such as that of Swarm Technologies' picosatellites last year. The government is counting on European cooperation, especially with Germany and Italy, to make future surveillance equipment and weapons affordable. https://aviationweek.com/space/france-creates-space-command-help-bid-be-third-space-power