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  • How Will Coronavirus Change The Aftermarket?

    April 7, 2020 | International, Aerospace

    How Will Coronavirus Change The Aftermarket?

    Alex Derber If the ongoing corona-crisis does effect a structural shift in the air transport market, both the production and aftermarket sectors will have to adjust. Much has been made of aviation's ability to weather previous external shocks such as 9/11, SARS and the financial crash, but the present upheaval is likely to outdo all others in its severity, and there is a good chance we won't see demand bounce back as quickly as in the past. In fact, the best comparison may not be with other external shocks at all, but rather with the profound impact that low-cost carriers (LCCs) had upon the established airline sector. Granted, this occurred region by region on a rolling basis over many years, rather than as a discrete global event like coronavirus, but the demand hit to full-service short- and medium-haul operations was huge. The LCCs also prompted significant changes in the MRO market, including: a move away from letter checks to more flexible maintenance programs; a rise in outsourcing and full-service maintenance contracts; and consolidation as larger MRO providers sought to enhance their nose-to-tail capabilities. So, what further changes might be wrought by the present crisis? Much will depend on the extent of the disruption and the demand profile thereafter, but certain tentative predictions can be made. For example: many airlines will probably fail; the survivors will emerge as smaller operations; many older aircraft will retire earlier; and business travel may never recover its pre-crisis highs. For the aftermarket this may mean: more competition for contracts and a need to find greater cost efficiencies; a greater focus on new-technology inspection, testing and repair capabilities, such as for carbon fiber and the latest engines; and a trend towards simpler cabins. Also a fair bet, of course, is that the most significant ramifications of coronavirus for the aftermarket are ones that almost no-one is considering currently. For an in-depth look at the factors that have shaped the MRO market to this point, see the next Inside MRO. https://aviationweek.com/mro/how-will-coronavirus-change-aftermarket

  • Boeing extends plant shutdowns in Washington state

    April 7, 2020 | International, Aerospace

    Boeing extends plant shutdowns in Washington state

    ByEd Adamczyk April 6 (UPI) -- Boeing Co. announced an extension of a production suspension in its Washington state facilities, and signaled that layoffs and buyouts could be coming, to help stem the spread of COVID-19. The company's Puget Sound and Moses Lake sites will be closed until further notice because of the spread of the coronavirus, additional advice from state health authorities and supply chain disruptions, the company said in a Sunday statement. The original shutdown began on March 23 and was scheduled for two weeks. The Puget Sound facilities are mostly known for constructing commercial aircraft, but the military's KC-46 tanker and P-8 maritime patrol aircraft are built on the same lines. Boeing officials said last month the stoppage is not expected to affect their production too greatly. Boeing employs about 70,000 people in the region. Last week it announced a two-week closure of facilities in the Philadelphia area for two weeks due to the spread of the virus. In a letter last week to employees, CEO David Calhoun predicted that the company's recovery from the health crisis will be lengthy. "When the world emerges from the pandemic, the size of the commercial market and the types of products and services our customers want and need will likely be different," he said. "It's important we start adjusting to our new reality now." Within several weeks, a buyout package will be offered to some of Boeing's 161,000 U.S. employees. Nearly one-third of its 27,000 unionized machinists are over 55, and with an aging workforce a buyout could find many takers. While the company appears to be eligible to receive funds from a $17 billion loan available to the aviation industry included in the $2 trillion federal stimulus package it is required to maintain staffing at 90 percent of current levels. https://www.upi.com/Defense-News/2020/04/06/Boeing-extends-plant-shutdowns-in-Washington-state/2371586187284

  • COVID-19 and aviation: Survival, recovery, and innovation

    April 7, 2020 | Local, Aerospace

    COVID-19 and aviation: Survival, recovery, and innovation

    Posted on April 7, 2020 by Dr. Suzanne Kearns This article originally appeared in The Hill Times and is published here with the permission of the author. The COVID-19 pandemic has challenged Canadians to adapt their way of life. Aviation professionals are playing a vital role in preserving societal functioning, with airlines volunteering to repatriate Canadians abroad, crew members risking exposure to reunite travellers with their families, and cargo operations playing a vital role in the supply chain – distributing essential medical supplies. These critical activities are only possible because of the work of the entire aviation sector that includes maintenance engineers, air traffic controllers, airport professionals, and so many others. In 2019 airlines carried 4.3 billion passengers, 58 million tonnes of freight, and supported 65.5 million jobs around the world (3.6 per cent of the world's gross domestic product according to the Aviation Benefits Report). The tourism sector is interconnected with aviation, supporting a further 37 million tourism-related jobs. The COVID-19 pandemic is testing the aviation industry in ways that were unfathomable at the beginning of this year. International aviation had been on a growth trajectory, with traffic projected to double in the coming 15 years. As 2020 began, some of the most pressing industry challenges were how to meet the demand for aviation professionals and achieve emission-reduction targets towards environmental sustainability. Aviation has always been a cyclical industry directly and rapidly impacted by downturns in the economy. The industry reported losses in the early 1990s due to the recession and again in 2001 after the 9/11 attacks; in 2003 following the SARS epidemic, and in 2008 linked to the financial crisis. Each of these downturns was followed by a period of economic recovery. Looking specifically at SARS, airlines lost $6 billion in revenues with the outbreak's economic impact having a V-shape where the rapid decline was matched by a speedy economic recovery. Despite the airline industry's cyclical nature it has maintained profitability for the past 10 years, with a profit of $25.9 billion in 2019 despite recent tragedies and challenges, according to IATA. For example, the sector faced the 737 Max accidents in 2018 and 2019, the Ukraine Airlines Flight 752 shot down in Iran, and the emergence of “flygskam” flight shaming air travel due to its emissions. Each of these events impacts passenger confidence in aviation, and many industry experts were bracing for an economic decline as a result. The industry maintaining profitability over the last decade is a testament to its strength and resilience. The COVID-19 pandemic is testing the aviation sector in new ways. The entire industry is being stretched to a breaking point, without interventions, it can not survive the crisis. Assuming travel restrictions are lifted after three months, 2020's passenger demand will be 38 per cent less than 2019, resulting in an impact of USD$ 252 billion according to IATA. Airports are projected to lose $46 billion in 2020, said Airport Council International (ACI). Although previous pandemics were followed by a sharp recovery, they did not cause recessions as COVID-19 might. This has led to three critical questions about the future of international aviation. When will the impacts of COVID-19 subside – and what will society look like when it does? How long will it take for people to have the funds and confidence to begin flying again? What specifically can be done to ensure the industry survives the crisis? How can we innovate during the downturn to craft a stronger future? The most pressing need for aviation is essential financial support through the pandemic, and in the coming months as society faces future waves of the virus. Beyond support to operators, it is critical to recognize that this situation also creates an opportunity to reflect upon and innovate practices within the industry. We will overcome this challenge, and hopefully build a better future. Key priorities during this time should explore how to mobilize Canada's innovation and research infrastructure towards aviation challenges. We have leading researchers in sustainability, cognitive science and engineering, material science, machine learning, automation, cybersecurity, and artificial intelligence among other areas. We are in a position to apply Canadian expertise towards aviation innovations, as important elements of our economic recovery strategy. What is certain is that COVID-19 will change the world – what is unknown is how we can learn from this to create a stronger and more resilient future together. https://www.skiesmag.com/news/covid-19-and-aviation-survival-recovery-and-innovation

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  • How COVID-19 could remake Canada’s military

    April 7, 2020 | Local, Aerospace, Naval, Land, C4ISR, Security

    How COVID-19 could remake Canada’s military

    By Elliot Hughes. Published on Apr 6, 2020 10:20am "It's safe to say that everyone involved in defence procurement should expect a significant shift to the right in timelines, and a retrenchment and re-focus towards projects that align with the government's recast military and geopolitical priorities." Since everyone is either overrun with work or inundated with COVID-19 news, here's the bottom line up front (or the BLUF in military jargon): the COVID-19 pandemic will have a material impact on all aspects of Strong, Secure, Engaged (SSE), Canada's defence policy. These changes will be felt acutely in defence funding, overseas operations, and defence procurement, though it's too early to predict the scale of the impact. There you have it. You can now go back to watching Tik Tok videos. For those choosing to forge ahead, it was only last week that Defence Minister Harjit Sajjan and Chief of the Defence Staff General Jonathan Vance laid out the domestic military response plan to the COVID-19 pandemic. Dubbed Op LASER, the plan will prioritize slowing the spread of COVID-19, support vulnerable communities, and assist provincial, territorial and municipal partners, if needed, by mobilizing up to 24,000 regular and reserve force members, all while maintaining the Canadian Armed Force's (CAF) ability to respond to natural disasters in Canada via Op LENTUS. This announcement was preceded by a letter to all CAF members from General Vance where he outlined the global pandemic's impact on Canada's military. In the letter, General Vance tells troops and their families in no uncertain terms that ‘normal activities have changed dramatically'. Too true. But the impacts of COVID-19 won't stop with the women and men in uniform. SSE was a historical investment in Canada's military, with new funding in the tens of billions of dollars ($48.9B on an accrual basis, $62.3B on a cash basis) from a party that some felt was not inherently defence friendly. The 20-year plan set aside hundreds of billions of dollars ($497B on an accrual basis, or $553B on a cash basis) to rebuild, retool, and refocus Canada's military after years of neglect during the Harper years. With unprecedented levels of new funding, DND finally had the plan, the funding, and the political commitment to move forward with confidence, poised to become the agile and adept military of the future. Then the world was hit with a global health crisis. In the face of the pandemic, the federal government has, to date, announced combined direct economic measures and tax deferrals of $190B. The numbers are eye-popping, and the implications of such spending are hard to fathom. The deficit this year and next could creep up towards $200B. Now, there's no question these fiscal measures are necessary and non-structural, meaning they could be unwound depending on how the Canadian economy looks post-COVID-19. The soaring deficits will place tremendous pressure on government to reduce its spending in non-COVID-19 areas in favour of healthcare and related priorities. DND/CAF had already been struggling to spend the money it had been allocated in SSE, and that was before their annual budgets increased significantly. People within and outside of government were beginning to question the department's ability to absorb the money they had been given. It is my view that COVID-19 will force Defence officials, with or without urging from Finance Canada, to use the upcoming five-year review period of SSE to re-assess and re-prioritize the entire strategy. In fact, that work is likely already underway. There are some who suggest that defence spending is a good way to get money flowing back into the domestic economy, particularly through the manufacturing supply chain. And there are areas that should remain off-limits to claw backs including big ticket procurements like the Canadian Surface Combatants (CSC) and Future Fighter Capability Project (FFCP), programs that directly support troops and their families, domestic operations and disaster relief, investments to support the development of defence and security capabilities such as the IDEaS program, IT investments (including in data analytics and updating key IT infrastructure), deferred maintenance, and perhaps most critically, cyber defence. Everything else will be fair game. Ring-fencing and reprioritizing essential programs won't be easy. But under the current circumstances, it's the right thing to do. Every department should be prepared to do the same. Overseas operations, including joint military exercises and training, is another area COVID-19 will have a direct and material impact. At this juncture, it's hard to know how big a role the CAF will be asked to play domestically. The situation in Canada is evolving by the hour. The dreaded peak of the pandemic has yet to hit. While we should remain optimistic, we also need to be realistic. This means the military should be poised to intervene if required. We know that close to a quarter of all active troops are on standby and depending on the severity of the crisis, this number could go up. On any given day, approximately 8,000 troops are involved in some form of deployment – preparing to ship out, actively engaged in theatre, or returning from mission. It's hard to see how this rotation rhythm escapes the reaches of COVID-19. Indeed, General Vance alluded to this in his letter stating, ‘mission postures would be reviewed', and that this year's ‘Annual Posting Season (APS) will be seriously disrupted'. It's likely the pull towards supporting domestic efforts will be strong. That doesn't mean the desire to re-engage internationally won't persist. However, the ability to do so will depend on how the situation unfolds here in Canada, the willingness of countries abroad to welcome back foreign troops, and the impact COVID-19 has on the geopolitical landscape. (This is by no means an endorsement of that view. Canada should do everything it can to remain engaged internationally wherever possible, particularly with respect to humanitarian missions). Cyber defence is one domain we should do everything we can to remain engaged in. But while Canada's expertise and influence on the world stage is undoubtedly a positive one, this global pandemic will inevitably lead to a further focusing of our most critical interests. Defence procurement, and the potential implications of COVID-19, is an area of acute interest to the defence community. This subject could be an entire article in and of itself (and if you're looking for the latest analysis on how DND/CAF was doing on procurement spending I'd encourage you to read David Perry's piece from December 2019). However, broadly speaking, it's worth noting that before this global health crisis hit, DND/CAF were progressing on procurement. Many projects, though not all, were moving ahead, even with the structural constraints and limitations of government processes holding them back. Large procurements, namely jets and ships, were plagued with delays that are expected for any large procurement. Now, given the magnitude of the COVID-19 pandemic, those typical speed bumps are bigger than before. The reality for defence procurement today is that the pace of work has come to a grinding halt. Nearly all personnel across government are working from home. Government IT challenges persist, with DND staff having to coordinate amongst themselves to schedule when they can log on to their system. And any work requiring access to a secured system is a non-starter as this would require being in the office. The Defence department is a bit like an aircraft carrier in that it takes time to get up to full speed and doesn't handle sharp corners very well. This crisis will expose that rigidity. But it isn't simply DND that needs to get back to work for defence procurement to start moving again – it will take a government-wide effort. For the process to run effectively officials from a range of government departments, including Public Services and Procurement Canada (PSPC), the Treasury Board Secretariat (TBS), Finance Canada, the Canadian Coast Guard and Global Affairs Canada, need to be fully engaged. Today, those Departments are focused almost exclusively on addressing the immediate challenges posed by COVID-19, with this to continue for the foreseeable future. Moreover, one also needs to consider the impact COVID-19 is having on companies bidding on projects. The entire supply chain has been hit and it will take months to get it humming again. How significant an impact this delay will have, and on which projects, is difficult to predict today. But it's safe to say that everyone involved in defence procurement should expect a significant shift to the right in timelines, and a retrenchment and re-focus towards projects that align with the government's recast military and geopolitical priorities. We are still in the early days of this crisis. Government is projecting a return to some sense of normalcy in July, at the earliest. The run-on impacts of that kind of pause are hard to comprehend, with a full understanding of the entirety of COVID-19 impacts likely to take even longer still This is a once-in-a-century event, with every person and institution expected to face indelible consequences. The very nature of the defence department, its size and scope, means we should expect a proportionate impact. https://ipolitics.ca/2020/04/06/how-covid-19-could-remake-canadas-military/

  • Video conference of foreign affairs ministers (defence), 6 April 2020

    April 6, 2020 | International, Aerospace, Naval, Land, C4ISR, Security

    Video conference of foreign affairs ministers (defence), 6 April 2020

    We agreed to explore how we could use the military expertise at EU level to support exchange of information and sharing of best practices among Member States. To do so, we could set up a task force with the European External Action Service, led by the EU Military Staff. Josep Borrell, EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy EU Ministers of defence today held a video conference, chaired by the EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Josep Borrell. Ministers discussed the defence implications of the Covid-19 pandemic, focusing in particular on military assistance in the fight against the crisis, and the situation in the EU's military and civilian missions and operations in the framework of the Common Security and Defence Policy (CSDP). Defence ministers shared examples of how their armed forces have contributed to the efforts to counter the Covid-19 crisis by providing transport and logistic support, building hospitals in record time, deploying their medical staff, and supporting the police and other national services. In this context it was decided to explore setting up a task force led by the EU Military Staff to better exchange information and share best practices among EU member states. This would be done in full coordination and complementarity with NATO. EU Defence ministers also discussed the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on the 17 EU CSDP missions and operations around the world, focusing on the six military operations and missions. Ministers highlighted the importance of maintaining EU's presence on the ground, especially in those countries and regions that are already fragile and affected by instability. https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/meetings/fac/2020/04/06/

  • COVID-19 Funding Opportunities / Possibilités de financement liées à la COVID-19

    April 6, 2020 | Local, Aerospace, Naval, Land, C4ISR, Security

    COVID-19 Funding Opportunities / Possibilités de financement liées à la COVID-19

    We have funding opportunities for Canadian innovators who can help fight the COVID-19 pandemic. The Public Health Agency of Canada and the National Research Council of Canada are looking for a Point of Care and Home Diagnostic Kit. The National Research Council of Canada has also modified their Low Cost Sensor System challenge to address needs for COVID-19. Think you can solve one of these challenges? Compete for funding to prove your feasibility and develop a solution! COVID-19 Funding Opportunities COVID-19 Challenge - Point of Care and Home Diagnostic Kit for COVID-19 Défi COVID-19 - Trousse de diagnostic au point de service et à domicile pour le COVID-19 COVID-19 Challenge - Low-cost sensor system for COVID-19 patient monitoring Défi COVID-19 – Système de capteurs peu coûteux surveiller l'état des patients atteints de la COVID-19 Nous avons des opportunités de financement pour les innovateurs canadiens qui peuvent aider à lutter contre la pandémie COVID-19. L'Agence de santé publique du Canada et le Conseil national de recherches du Canada sont à la recherche d'un kit de diagnostic aux points de service et à domicile. Le Conseil national de recherches du Canada a également modifié son Défi du système de capteurs peu coûteux pour surveiller l'état des patients pour répondre aux besoins de COVID-19. Vous pensez pouvoir résoudre l'un de ces défis ? Participez pour avoir la chance de recevoir du financement pour prouver votre faisabilité de votre solution et la développer ! Possibilités de financement liées à la COVID-19 Want to change how you receive these emails? You can update your preferences or unsubscribe from this list. Vous souhaitez changer la façon dont vous recevez ces courriels? Vous pouvez mettre à jour vos préférences ou retirer votre nom de la liste de distribution.

  • Raytheon Technologies Corp. begins trading on NYSE

    April 6, 2020 | International, Aerospace, Naval, Land, C4ISR, Security

    Raytheon Technologies Corp. begins trading on NYSE

    By: Jill Aitoro WASHINGTON — Less than a year after announcing plans to combine into a $121 billion company, Raytheon and United Technologies are officially no more — replaced by the combined entity Raytheon Technologies Corp., which kicked off trading Friday on the New York Stock Exchange. Listed under the ticker RTX, Raytheon Technologies began selling at $51 a share. With more than 866 million shares outstanding and a market cap of $74.5 billion, that price is bound to shift in the coming days, weeks and months. To put it in perspective, Raytheon closed Thursday at $122.43 a share, and UTC closed at $91.37 a share. With the merger, UTC shareholders owned 57 percent of Raytheon Technologies, and UTC will control eight of the 15 board seats. Tom Kennedy will serve as executive chairman, Greg Hayes as CEO and Toby O'Brien as chief financial officer. Planned divestitures will be completed post merger, though United Technologies did complete the spinoff of HVAC, refrigeration, fire and security solutions company Carrier Global Corp., as well as elevator and escalator manufacturer Otis Worldwide Corp. Both are now trading on the S&P 500. Amid the stock market fallout from the new coronavirus pandemic, Raytheon saw a bigger drop than most pure-play companies, likely due to the increased exposure to the commercial market that came with the merger. However, that could be short-lived, said Byron Callan of Capital Alpha Partners. “Raytheon has been the worst-performing stock [during the crisis] because they got tied into commercial aerospace through the merger," he told Defense News in an interview. “But going forward, that may be the most interesting [stock] of all because there will be a degree of balance.” https://www.defensenews.com/industry/2020/04/03/raytheon-technologies-corp-begins-trading-on-nyse/

  • Pentagon denies it seeks to hide future budget information

    April 6, 2020 | International, Aerospace, Naval, Land, C4ISR, Security

    Pentagon denies it seeks to hide future budget information

    By: Aaron Mehta WASHINGTON — The Pentagon is pushing back on reports that it seeks to classify previously public information about its future spending plans, with the department insisting that the transparency of this information that is public as part of the regular budget rollout process will not change. The Future Years Defense Program provides spending projections for how the Department of Defense plans to invest its money over the coming five-year period. While the numbers are not locked in and regularly change year by year, the projections can provide valuable information to the public and industry about what the department views as priorities and where programs might be going. Information about a legislative proposal from the Pentagon seeking to classify FYDP data was published Monday by Steven Aftergood of the Federation of American Scientists. Aftergood wrote that the proposal would “make it even harder for Congress and the public to refocus and reconstruct the defense budget.” It is traditional for FYDP numbers to be included as part of the budget rollout, as well as be included in program-by-program breakdowns. However, Pentagon spokesman Chris Sherwood said that the legislative language is not aimed at information that is currently made public during the normal budget process. Instead, it is focused on a requirement in the fiscal 2018 National Defense Authorization Act on what is provided to Congress. “The 2018 NDAA required a formal unclassified version of the FYDP report,” Sherwood said in a statement. “The Department has not to date complied with that request because we are very concerned that providing that level of detail for the outyears might put critical information at risk and breach classification standards." “The DoD is exploring all possible paths forward, including requesting relief from the new requirement, as well as trying to determine how much information can safely be public in addition to all the budget information already made available,” he continued. “It is important to note that there is a difference between a formal Unclassified FYDP report and the unclassified outyear data for any given program that people often refer to as the FYDP for a program. We have and will continue to provide the classified FYDP as we have since 1989. There will be no reduction in any currently provided information,” he added. Asked specifically if that meant information about the FYDP that is usually included in public budget documents provided to media, Sherwood said: “The legislative proposal would not affect or change how DoD currently provides budget information.” Whether that assurance will satisfy advocates of keeping the FYDP open is uncertain, but the DoD appears behind the ball on convincing Congress that less transparency is a good idea. Speaking to reporters on Thursday, Rep. Mac Thornberry, R-Texas., the ranking member on the House Armed Services Committee, said he had only learned of the proposal when reports emerged, but indicated that any attempt to limit information about the FYDP is unlikely to meet a warm reception on Capitol Hill. “Obviously my inclination is: That's a bad idea,” Thornberry said. “I have not heard the department's justification for it. But I would say they've got a pretty high evidentiary threshold to overcome, to get Congress [to] go along with classifying the five-year FYDP.” Thornberry said he understands the concern, elucidated in the DoD proposal, that modern computing techniques could allow a foreign competitor to gather information about American plans from the data. But taxpayers deserve to know how their money will be spent in the future, the former committee chairman said, and that outweighs such concerns at the moment. The House believes “that the greater good is the transparency with the American people. So that's our default position, I think in both parties,” Thornberry said. “They hadn't made their case to me yet, but I think it's going to be hard for them to overcome that default position.” The Pentagon ultimately benefits from more openness when it comes to discussions on the budget, said Tom Mahnken, a former Pentagon official who is now president and CEO of the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments. “It clearly is important to protect certain aspects of the U.S. defense budget from disclosure. The Defense Department has successfully met that challenge for decades,” Mahnken said. “But there is also a compelling case for disclosing how the Defense Department plans to spend its resources and whether its budget is aligned with its strategy. “Transparency ultimately helps the Defense Department make the case for the resources it needs in Congress as well as the public at large.” https://www.defensenews.com/pentagon/2020/04/03/pentagon-denies-it-seeks-to-hide-future-budget-information/

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