Mattis resignation not likely to damage Canada-U.S. security ties: experts

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  October 10, 2019 | Local, Aerospace, Naval, Land, C4ISR, Security

  Opinion: How To Assess Defense Prospects For The Future

  Byron Callan During upcoming earnings conference calls, expect some defense contractors to again state that they are well-positioned in high-priority programs and markets that fully align with customer priorities. In addition, planners and analysts are going to be asking a lot more questions about contractor positioning and the outcome of the 2020 U.S. election. Who will be best positioned if President Donald Trump is reelected or if there is a Democrat in the White House in 2021? On the first assertion of “well-positioned,” to a degree it is axiomatic. Defense requirements are validated, so by that very process, they take priority over emerging and yet-to-be-funded requirements. However, if one accepts the premises that Defense Department budgets may be flat for a multi-year period and that demand signals for security are going to rise, the sector will be entering a far more dynamic period in the 2020s than the past 4-5 years. Instead of being “well-positioned,” a broader set of filters may need to be applied. Posture may be a better way to assess contractor outlooks. There are five attributes on which this may be assessed. 1. The priority and relative safety of programs matters both in U.S. and international markets. But that needs to be assessed and reassessed against changed defense needs. Today's major programs of record are likely to change. If there is doubt on that issue, a reading of the U.S. Marine Corps Commandant's Planning Guidance released last July may dispel notions that the next 10 years are going to be stable and predictable. 2. One contractor can disrupt others through new product and service offerings or even a new business model. Examples of the former include Boeing's T-X/T-7 aircraft, which, if evolved into a fighter/attack aircraft, may be good enough for some missions. Kratos' Valkyrie is another example, which could affect demand for manned combat aircraft. On the latter, the Pentagon now intends to purchase launch services instead of expendable launch vehicles. Where else might these sorts of “as a service” models be applied? 3. The pipeline of bid opportunities: There are some large programs that are in competition and for which decisions are pending. The Ground-Based Strategic Deterrent, Long-Range Standoff, Army aviation and ground-vehicle modernization and Navy FFG(X) programs are some of the larger ones that could be decided, but there also are classified ones and swaths of opportunity in unmanned systems, hypersonics, software for data and artificial intelligence, and cybersecurity. International opportunity also clearly matters in assessing how a contractor is postured. 4. The ability to execute within cost and schedule is essential. Human capital, technology application and risk, contracting and supply chain management are critical attributes. This also will tie into the bid pipeline and the degree to which a contractor is postured to pursue new opportunities or if the contractor will have challenges managing its current portfolio of products and services. From the outside looking in at contractors, this attribute may be difficult to measure. Open job position data can be sketchy, but it is one metric to consider. Performance on current programs is another. 5. Contractor culture will be critical in the 2020s. One aspect of culture is how well a contractor anticipates potential changes in defense and security needs. Another is how receptive company leaders are to positioning or repositioning to capitalize on those changes. There will not be solid metrics here, although there are plenty of good questions to ask. In order to anticipate change, contractors are going to have to be wired to understand when and where change is occurring. This has to allow perspectives that may differ from the consensus view to reach leaders so they can assess whether ideas are worth pursuing or if there is a threat to be addressed. Part of this posture entails a willingness to create top cover and breathing space for conflicting views. There will be a natural tendency of company leaders to continue to exploit current business models and protect major products and services. There will likely be very strong pressure from shareholders to sustain or increase operational margins and cash flow and stay within current business lanes. Posture, however, may also include a willingness to take some short-term or even intermediate-term pain and risk in order to better position for the future. Innovation is an overused term these days, and it may be like former Supreme Court Justice Potter Stewart's assertion on obscenity: “I know it when I see it.” Be that as it may, contractors must dedicate time to innovation every week in order to achieve it. https://aviationweek.com/defense/opinion-how-assess-defense-prospects-future

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  January 15, 2019 | Local, Aerospace

  Daniel Turp veut empêcher des ventes d’armes «hypocrites»

  Hugo Joncas | Le Journal de Montréal Ottawa fait preuve d'«hypocrisie» en autorisant la vente d'équipements aéronautiques québécois aux forces de l'Arabie saoudite et des Émirats arabes unis, dit le professeur de droit constitutionnel Daniel Turp, qui veut les faire interdire dès que possible. «Il y a une hypocrisie collective qui fait qu'on tolère ça de nos gouvernements parce que ça créerait des emplois», a dit l'ancien député au micro de Robert Dutrizac sur QUB radio lundi matin. Daniel Turp réagissait au reportage de notre Bureau d'enquête, qui révèle que l'aéronautique québécoise a vendu pour près d'un milliard de dollars en équipements aux militaires saoudiens, émiratis et à leurs alliés dans la sanglante guerre au Yémen, qui a tué 4500 civils jusqu'ici. Il souligne l'«incohérence» de ces ventes avec l'arrivée de la jeune réfugiée saoudienne en sol canadien la fin de semaine dernière. Recours judiciaires Daniel Turp est déjà en quête d'un moyen de pour empêcher de futures exportations. «Je vais mettre mes étudiants au travail», dit le professeur à l'Université de Montréal, en entrevue avec notre Bureau d'enquête. La partie est cependant loin d'être gagnée. Daniel Turp tente déjà d'en appeler jusqu'en Cour suprême pour faire annuler les licences d'exportation des blindés ontariens de General Dynamics. Dans le cas des moteurs de Pratt & Whitney et des appareils de Bell Hélicoptères Textron destinés aux flottes de guerre cependant, aucune licence n'est même nécessaire de la part d'Ottawa, puisqu'ils sont conçus comme des équipements civils. Ils sont ensuite utilisés pour assembler des appareils d'attaque aux États-Unis, lié au Canada par l'Accord sur le partage de la production de défense, un véritable libre-échange de l'armement. «Il faut que je trouve le moyen de poursuivre les compagnies», dit-il. Daniel Turp observera de près comment évolue une poursuite intentée en Italie contre le fabricant d'une bombe saoudienne ayant tué les six membres d'une famille au Yémen, en octobre 2016. Il doit aussi intervenir dans les consultations des prochaines semaines sur le projet de loi C-47, qui doit permettre au Canada d'adhérer au Traité des Nations unies sur le commerce des armes. Daniel Turp compte exiger que les pièces et composantes soient incluses dans la liste du matériel à exportation contrôlée, même lorsqu'elles sont vendues aux États-Unis. Le professeur évoque enfin les «principes directeurs de l'Organisation de développement et de coopération économique» (OCDE), auquel le Canada adhère. Ils mentionnent notamment qu'une entreprise doit «éviter d'être la cause d'incidences négatives sur les droits de l'homme ou d'y contribuer, et parer à ces incidences lorsqu'elles surviennent». https://www.tvanouvelles.ca/2019/01/15/daniel-turp-veut-empecher-des-ventes-darmes-hypocrites

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  February 18, 2019 | Local, Aerospace

  First two used Australian fighter jets arrive in Canada on Sunday

  DAVID PUGLIESE, OTTAWA CITIZEN The Royal Canadian Air Force will be showing off its first two used Australian fighter jets on Sunday at 4 Wing Cold Lake in Alberta. Representatives from the Royal Australian Air Force and the RCAF will mark the arrival of the F-18 jets that morning. Only local media have been invited to cover the event. The aircraft will be used to bolster the RCAF's CF-18 fleet. Pat Finn, assistant deputy minister for materiel at the Department of National Defence, told Postmedia in a recent interview that he expected the first two jets in the spring but there was hope they could arrive earlier. The two aircraft will be prepared for flying as quickly as possible. “I would say it could be by the summer the first couple are on the flight line and painted with the maple leaf,” Finn said. A second group of planes would arrive later this year. Eighteen of the Australian F-18 aircraft will eventually be flying for the Canadian Forces, while another seven will be used for testing and spare parts. Canada is paying Australia $90 million for the aircraft. The federal government originally estimated the purchase of the Australian jets would cost around $500 million, but Finn said that price reflected every aspect of the associated deal, not just the cost of purchasing the jets. Canada is also acquiring extra spare parts, the Australian jets will have to be outfitted with specific Canadian equipment and software and testing will be needed. The $500-million project estimate also included $50 million in contingency funds to cover any problems and another $35 million for the salaries of all civilian and military personnel involved over the life of the project. An additional $30 million will be spent on new infrastructure needed to accommodate the aircraft. Those costs add up to $360 million, Finn said. But DND also plans to upgrade its existing fleet of CF-18s with new communications gear and equipment required to meet regulations to operate in civilian airspace, improvements which the Australian jets will also eventually receive at a cost of around $110 million, an amount that brought the original estimate to nearly $500 million. The Liberal government had planned to buy 18 new Super Hornet fighter jets from U.S. aerospace giant Boeing to augment the Royal Canadian Air Force's CF-18s until new aircraft can be purchased in the coming years. But in 2017 Boeing complained to the U.S. Commerce Department that Canadian subsidies for Quebec-based Bombardier allowed it to sell its C-series civilian passenger aircraft in the U.S. at cut-rate prices. As a result, the administration of U.S. President Donald Trump enacted a tariff of almost 300 per cent against the Bombardier aircraft sold in the U.S. In retaliation, Canada cancelled the deal to buy the 18 Super Hornets, which would have cost more than US$5 billion. Instead of buying the new Super Hornets, the Liberals decided to acquire the used Australian jets. Defence Minister Harjit Sajjan has said the extra jets are needed to deal with a “capability gap,” as Canada does not have enough fighters to handle its commitments to NATO as well as protecting North America. But Conservative MPs say the capability gap doesn't exist and was concocted by the government to delay a larger project to buy new jets, a competition that might end up selecting the F-35 stealth fighter that during the 2015 election campaign the Liberals vowed never to purchase. In the fall of 2016, then-Royal Canadian Air Force commander Lt.-Gen. Mike Hood told senators that the Liberal government brought in a policy change which required the RCAF to be able to meet both its NATO and North American air defence commitments at the same time. That, in turn, created the capability gap, he said. Hood said he was not told about the reasons for the policy change. In November 2018 Auditor General Michael Ferguson issued a report noting that the purchase of the extra aircraft would not fix the fundamental weaknesses with the CF-18 fleet which is the aircraft's declining combat capability and a shortage of pilots and maintenance personnel. “The Australian F/A-18s will need modifications and upgrades to allow them to fly until 2032,” the report said. “These modifications will bring the F/A-18s to the same level as the CF-18s but will not improve the CF-18's combat capability.” “In our opinion, purchasing interim aircraft does not bring National Defence closer to consistently meeting the new operational requirement introduced in 2016,” the report added. The Canadian Forces says it is bringing in new initiatives to boost the numbers of pilots and maintenance staff. https://montrealgazette.com/news/national/defence-watch/first-two-used-australian-fighter-jets-arrive-in-canada-on-sunday/