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Here’s how the Trump administration could make it easier to sell military drones
WASHINGTON — The United States is actively pursuing a change to a major arms control treaty that would open the door for wider exports of military drones.
The proposed change to the Missile Technology Control Regime would make it easier for nations to sell the systems, also known as unmanned aerial vehicles or UAVs, that fly under 650 km per hour, according to multiple sources who are aware of the efforts.
The MTCR is an agreement among 35 nations that governs the export of missiles and UAVs. Under the terms of the MTCR, any “category-1” system capable of carrying 500-kilogram payloads for more than 300 kilometers is subject to a “strong presumption of denial.”
Proponents of UAV exports argue that language, while appropriate for curtailing the sale of cruise missiles, should not group together expandable weapons and unmanned systems. Instead, they argue, UAVs should be looked at the same way fighter jets or other high-tech military vehicles are.
As part of an effort to find a compromise, American officials floated a white paper during the latest plenary session on the MTCR in October, proposing new language to the treaty: that any air vehicle that flies under 650 kilometers per hour would drop to “category-2” and thus be subject to approval on a case-by-case basis.
A State Department official confirmed to Defense News that the U.S. presented the white paper, and that American negotiators have zeroed in on the speed of the vehicles as a potential change to the treaty. However, the official declined to comment on the exact speed under consideration.
“I can't confirm any specific numbers because it's treated — inside the MTCR — as proprietary ... particularly because there's a deliberative process,” the official said. “But I can tell you that speed is the thing that we, based on industry input and all, have looked at. And that's what we have discussed with partners. And I know other governments are also looking at speed as well, so we're all sort of coming to a similar conclusion.”
Under the MTCR, a “presumption of denial” about exports for category-1 systems exists. In essence, that means countries tied into the MTCR need to have a very compelling case to sell them.
However, the speed change, if adopted, would result in most drones used by the U.S. military dropping down from category-1 to category-2, allowing the U.S. to sell them through the traditional foreign military sale or direct commercial sale methods.
“Treating drones as missiles is fundamentally incoherent. It reflects a 1980s view of the technology,” said Michael Horowitz, a former Pentagon official now with the University of Pennsylvania who has studied drone issues.
“To the extent creating a speed delineation helps you get around that problem, it's a good practical solution.”
The impact of speed
Most medium-altitude, long-endurance systems like General Atomics' MQ-1 Predator and MQ-9 Reaper fly at slow speeds, with the Reaper clocking in with a cruise speed of 230 mph or 370 kph, according to an Air Force facts sheet. Northrop Grumman's RQ-4 Global Hawk, a high-altitude ISR drone, flies only at a cruise speed of about 357 mph or 575 kph.
The 650 kph ceiling would also keep the door open for companies developing cutting-edge rotorcraft that could be modified in the future to be unmanned — a key request made by the companies involved in the Future Vertical Lift consortium, said one industry source.
Those companies include Bell Helicopter and a Sikorsky-Boeing team, both of which are developing high-speed rotorcraft that can fly at excess of 463 kph, or 250 knots, for the Army's Joint Multi Role technology demonstrator program.
However, the limitation would ensure that some of the United States' most technologically advanced UAVs stay out of the grasp of other nations. For example, it would prevent the proliferation of jet-powered, fast moving flying wing drones like Boeing's Phantom Ray and Northrop Grumman's X-47B demonstrators, both of which can cruise at near-supersonic speeds.
While the UAV industry wants the U.S. government to pick up the pace on drone export reform, the State Department and other agencies argue that a prudent approach is needed. For example, any change to the MTCR that loosens restrictions on low-speed drones also needs to be closely examined to ensure that missile technology is still strictly controlled.
“We don't want any unintended consequences, so it has to be crafted carefully. We don't want to inadvertently drop something else out like a cruise missile,” the State Department official said.
The focus on speed is particularly smart at a time when countries are focused on increasing the speed of their munitions, Horowitz said.
He pointed to growing investments in hypersonic weapons as an example where creating a speed delineation in the MTCR would allow the U.S. to push for greater UAV exports while “holding the line on exports of next-generation missiles.”
Industry desires
Industry has long argued that the United States has taken an overly proscriptive route, hamstringing potential drone sales to allies and pushing them into the arms of more nefarious actors such as China, the other major UAV producer on the worldwide market.
Modifying the MTCR is just one facet of the Trump administration's review of drone export policy, which also includes taking a second look at domestic regulations that can be amended by the president at will. Because changes to the MTCR require consensus among the regime's 35 member countries, industry sees it as a direly-needed, but long-term solution.
“Now we have lighter-than-air vehicles; we have intelligence, surveillance reconnaissance [UAVs]. We still have cruise missiles, we have aircraft that could autonomous for cargo and other purposes. But [the MTCR] doesn't distinguish between any of that, so a revisit of those MTCR rules is in order for things that fly and can fly autonomously,” said Aerospace Industries Association President David Melcher during a December 14 roundtable with reporters.
American firms are particularly concerned about losing out on sales in the Middle East. China has already exported its Wing Loong — a medium altitude, long endurance UAV that resembles General Atomics' MQ-1 Predator — to multiple countries worldwide, including some close U.S. partners such as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.
Meanwhile, sales of U.S.-made drones have been rarer, with many Middle Eastern countries such as the UAE only able to buy unarmed versions of American UAVs, even though those nations regularly purchase more technologically advanced weaponry like fighter jets from the United States.
The State official noted that any change in the MTCR would not need to wait until the next plenary session, but could be introduced in some form as early as an April technical meeting. And at least one industry source was optimistic about the administration's MTCR reform plan.
“They're taking a pretty smart process in not trying to tackle everything at once, but trying to get some of the language corrected in small bites,” the source said. “I don't see this as being an overnight process. I don't think we're going to end up in the next six months with a brand new MTCR policy.”
However, Horowitz warned that the nature of the MTCR, where any single country could veto such a change, means getting any changes will not be easy. Russia, for example, could block the move not on technical reasons but geopolitical ones, given relations between Moscow and Washington.
If that happens, Horowitz noted, the U.S. could potentially look to apply the 650 kph speed definition on its own, something possible because of the voluntary nature of the MTCR.
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On the ground at Yokota Air Base, the Air Force transport hub of the Pacific
By: Mike Yeo MELBOURNE, Australia — In the west of the sprawling metropolis that is Tokyo lies Yokota Air Base, a major air transportation hub in the U.S. military's Indo-Pacific Command's area of responsibility and a critical waypoint for cargo, passengers and VIPs. Occupying an area of approximately 2.75 square miles that includes a single 11,000-foot runway that runs roughly north to south, the base is also home to U.S. Forces Japan, a joint service headquarters coordinating matters affecting U.S. and Japanese defense relations, and Fifth Air Force, whose mission is to enhance the U.S. deterrent posture and, if necessary, provide fighter and military airlift support for offensive air operations. Other tenant units on base include the 730th Air Mobility Squadron of the 515th Air Mobility Operation Group, which manages air mobility operations throughout the Western Pacific, and the Japanese Air Defense Command, which controls Japan's air defense mission. Air traffic control for the base is integrated with Tokyo's air traffic system, a must given the busy nature of the skies above the Japanese capital with its two international airports and a number of Japanese Self-Defense Force bases in the vicinity. As a logistics hub, Yokota plays host to all kinds of visiting aircraft on a regular basis, with Captain Felicia Ticas, airfield operations flight commander, telling Defense News that the base “accepts around 2,100 transient aircraft annually, which includes U.S. Air Force, Japanese Self Defense Forces, and other allied aircraft.” She added: “Our role as the primary logistics hub means we move 85,000 personnel and 19,000 tons of cargo every year in and around Indo-Asia-Pacific, which is essential to meet the peace and stability objectives of our nation and our allied partners.” The visitors have included secretaries of state and defense Mike Pompeo and James Mattis during their visits to the region, as well as President Donald Trump who landed there during a visit to Japan in November 2017. 374th Airlift Wing The host unit at Yokota is the 374th Airlift Wing. The Wing includes four groups: operations, mission support, maintenance and medical. Each group manages several squadrons in order to carry out the wing's mission, which is to execute rapid global mobility through agile airlift operations across the Indo-Asia-Pacific region and as the primary Western Pacific airlift hub for peacetime and contingency operations, the wing provides airlift for the movement of passengers, cargo and mail to all Department of Defense agencies in the Pacific area of responsibility and provides transport for people and equipment throughout the Kanto Plain and the Tokyo metropolitan area. In addition to the Lockheed-Martin C-130J Super Hercules tactical airlifters of the 36th Airlift Squadron, the other flying squadron at Yokota is the 459th Airlift Squadron. The unit operates a mixed fleet of Bell UH-1N helicopters and Raytheon C-12J Hurons to fulfil its mission of providing airlift support for distinguished visitors as well as other priority passengers and cargo, along with conducting aeromedical evacuation, search and rescue and priority airlift missions throughout the Pacific. The UH-1N Huey, whose design dates back to the Vietnam War, is used by the 459th AS to provide distinguish visitor and cargo transport throughout the Kanto Plain which encompasses the Greater Tokyo area, according to Major Matthew Sims, assistant director of operations of the 459th AS. In addition, he told Defense News that the type is also used to provide medical transport and search and rescue assistance for the government of Japan, and can be configured with a rescue hoist and litters for medical cases as the mission requirements demand. The twin turboprop-engined C-12J Hurons serving alongside the UH-1Ns at the 459th AS are used primarily for VIP transport. However, they have also become the primary response aircraft for small-scale aeromedical evacuation. An aeromedical evacuation nursing team is now deployed to the base on a rotational basis, with each team there two- to three-week deployment to support the mission. The use of the C-12J, which is based on the Raytheon 1900C regional airliner, has significantly freed up the USAF's primary aeromedical evacuation platform, the KC-135R tanker, to perform its primary role and Major Drew Skovran, 459th AS Assistant Operations Officer called the C-12J “the most cost-effective airlifter for small groups in the PACAF inventory carrying 10-18 passengers or up to 3000 lbs of cargo. With the addition of a converted hospital bed we are one of the premier platforms for aeromedical evacuation for all joint partners in the AOR”. Non-flying elements of the Wing includes the 374th Logistics Readiness Squadron, which directs logistics for Western Pacific airlift hub orchestrates mobilization of wing and tenant units supporting Pacific Command's operations plans, currently stores over 13 million and issues over 36 million gallons of fuel. Part of the unit includes its Combat Mobility Flight, which is responsible for the support of real-world contingencies, INDOPACOM and/or PACAF exercises, and humanitarian assistance/disaster relief mission support. It is also “the only PACAF unit that builds and specializes in coastal humanitarian air drop, allowing for specialized humanitarian relief aid avoiding possible damage to people and buildings” according to Technical Sergeant Ryan Aubert, a Recovery Lead at the 374th Logistics Readiness Squadron's Combat Mobility Flight Air Force Ospreys The sole USAF flying element at Yokota that is not part of the 374th AW are the Bell-Boeing CV-22 Osprey tiltrotor aircraft assigned to the 353rd Special Operations Group. The first five Ospreys arrived at Yokota in April this year, and that number will eventually rise to ten. Four of the unit's Ospreys were subsequently deployed to Iwakuni to take part in search and rescue operations following the collision of a U.S. Marine Corps KC-130J tanker and F/A-18D Hornet fighter jet off Japan in early December, joining the C-130Js of 36th AS along with other U.S. military and Japanese Self-Defense Force aircraft. The 353rd SOG is based out of Kadena Airbase in Okinawa operating the MC-130H Combat Talon II and MC-130J Commando II special missions aircraft modified from the C-130 Hercules, and according to 1st Lieutenant Renee Douglas, a spokesperson from the unit, the CV-22Bs are based at Yokota because the base “was the location that provided the most effective operations, training and maintenance environment for the CV-22.” Due to training and operational requirements, Defense News was unable to speak to the Osprey detachment at Yokota to learn more about their mission, but 1Lt Douglas added in an emailed response to questions from Defense News that “having CV-22s at Yokota Air Base will help our forces develop expertise, build long-term relationships with the host nation to ensure stability, and contribute to special operations capabilities with our allies and security partners.” The continuing security challenges in the region and the presence of forward deployed elements of the U.S. military means that Yokota's status of a regional logistics hub is here to stay and even increase in the future. Asked to sum up the importance of the base and the wing's mission, Colonel Otis Jones, commander of the 374th AW, told Defense News that “because of our proximity to Tokyo, along with the unique airlift capabilities we contribute to the region, Yokota, and specifically the 374th Airlift Wing, provides an advantageous hub for cargo and personnel moving into and out of the Pacific area of responsibility.” The wing also executes rapid global mobility through agile airlift operations across the Indo-Asia-Pacific region and engages in regular bilateral engagements with the Japanese Self Defense Force, surrounding communities and the local Japanese government. https://www.defensenews.com/digital-show-dailies/japan-aerospace/2018/12/07/on-the-ground-at-yokota-air-base-the-air-force-transport-hub-of-the-pacific/