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November 7, 2018 | International, Aerospace, Naval, Land, C4ISR, Security

Coopérations dans l'armement : la France peut-elle vraiment faire confiance à l'Allemagne ? (1/3)

Par Michel Cabirol

La France et l'Allemagne ont à l'évidence des enjeux et des objectifs différents. La coopération franco-allemande est-elle assise sur des bases saines ? Pas sûr.

La France peut-elle vraiment faire confiance à l'Allemagne en matière de politique de défense et d'armement? Pas sûr si l'on en croit le député LREM du Finistère, Jean-Charles Larsonneur, qui jette un pavé dans la mare avec son rapport sur le programme 146 (Equipement des forces et dissuasion) : "L'approfondissement, sans grande publicité et, pour ainsi dire, à bas bruit, du concept de nation-cadre de l'OTAN, consiste à fédérer autour de l'Allemagne les capacités de 17 « petits » pays, ce qui risque de réduire l'intérêt des Allemands pour nos coopérations bilatérales", a-t-il expliqué le 24 octobre à l'Assemblée nationale.

L'Allemagne se place dans une volonté de leadership en Europe dans le domaine de la défense, qu'elle a très clairement exprimé dans son Livre Blanc de 2016 et dans sa stratégie dans le domaine des technologies clés. D'ailleurs, l'un des plus influents think tank d'Allemagne, la Stiftung für Wissenschaft und Politik (SWP), synthétise parfaitement la stratégie allemande. Il préconisait en août 2017 que Berlin prenne le leadership militaire de l'Union européenne, et de devenir le pilier européen de l'OTAN en raison du futur désengagement américain. "La Bundeswehr pourrait devenir une épine dorsale de la sécurité européenne à long terme, affirmait la SWP. (...) Cela exige de la volonté du futur gouvernement fédéral d'accepter un leadership politique et militaire dans l'alliance".

Un avantage puissant pour l'industrie allemande

L'Allemagne a effectivement su se saisir du concept de nation-cadre ("Framework Nation Concept"- FNC) élaboré par l'OTAN à son initiative à partir de 2012. De fait, l'Allemagne, qui a mis en œuvre ce concept, s'est entourée, en tant que nation-cadre, de 19 États membres pour mettre en œuvre des projets de coopération très approfondis, tendant à une véritable intégration pour certains d'entre eux (Pays-Bas notamment). Et pour de nombreux observateurs, ce concept va se révéler être un rouleau compresseur en faveur des intérêts industriels germaniques. C'est un "instrument stratégique qui pourrait servir puissamment les intérêts de l'industrie allemande", a confirmée Jean-Charles Larsonneur.

Pourquoi ? Selon Antoine Bouvier, cité dans le rapport du député, l'interpénétration des enjeux capacitaires et opérationnels est profonde. Ainsi, les États partenaires de l'Allemagne ont souscrit l'engagement de porter au standard le plus élevé leurs capacités des chars de combat, ce qui constitue une "formidable opportunité pour KMW ". Cette opportunité est par nature d'autant plus grande que l'intégration des capacités militaires concernées est poussée. Ainsi, l'armée de terre néerlandaise ne pourrait désormais plus être déployée sans la Bundeswehr, tant leur intégration capacitaire est profonde. L'Allemagne, dans ce schéma, tient un rôle d'intégrateur des capacités européennes. Cette ambition s'appuie sur des ressources budgétaires à la hausse : augmentation de 34,3 milliards d'euros en 2016 à 42,9 milliards en 2019 (soit 1,31% du PIB).

"Le concept de nation-cadre se constitue de fait comme le pilier européen de l'Alliance ‒ aux yeux d'Américains, mieux vaut voir l'Europe de la défense se constituer dans un cadre de l'OTAN, bien connu, plutôt que dans des constructions européennes moins maîtrisées par eux", a expliqué Jean-Charles Larsonneur dans son rapport.

Le SCAF en danger?

Un accord politique a été trouvé au plus haut niveau le 13 juillet 2017, formalisé par des lettres d'intention au printemps 2018. Il est convenu que la France aura un rôle prééminent dans la conduite du programme SCAF. Symétriquement, il est entendu que l'Allemagne en aura un dans la conduite du projet de char du futur tout comme elle a obtenu le leadership sur le futur drone MALE européen. Selon Jean-Charles Larsonneur, les industriels français et allemands ne disposent toujours pas d'un cadre réglementaire, ne serait-ce que pour échanger des informations. "Il ressort de mes travaux que la DGA attend des réponses de son équivalent allemand", a-t-il révélé.

"Il est donc urgent de poser des jalons aussi irréversibles que possible dans la coopération franco-allemande, tant que le contexte politique le permet", a-t-il affirmé.

Jean-Charles Larsonneur est inquiet sur la coopération franco-allemande. "La coopération franco-allemande présente en ce moment quelques signes de flottement", a-t-il estimé à l'Assemblée nationale. Il a cité en exemple la décision des Allemands de décliner la proposition française de développer en commun un missile européen pour le nouveau standard du Tigre, au profit d'un missile israélien, le Spike, comme l'avait révélé La Tribune. Mais selon Antoine Bouvier, le nouveau Spike LR2 n'est qu'au début de son développement et comporte donc des risques technologiques. "Le choix des Allemands pour une joint venture entre Rafael, fabricant israélien du Spike, et RheinMettall ‒ dont le rôle dans ce programme ne paraît d'ailleurs pas être dominant ‒ ne s'explique donc pas principalement par des considérations techniques", a précisé le rapport du député du Finistère.

Le concept de nation-cadre permet également à l'Allemagne d'avancer discrètement ses pions dans le domaine des sous-marins. Après avoir fait céder la Norvège (membre du FNC), Berlin tente désormais de séduire la Pologne et les Pays-Bas en vantant un cluster européen sous-marin sous tutelle allemande. Ce qui marginaliserait clairement la France en Europe. En février 2017, la Norvège a commandé quatre U-212 et doit développer avec Berlin un partenariat à vocation mondiale dans le domaine des missiles mer-mer et des systèmes de traitement de l'information. La décision d'Oslo d'interrompre l'appel d'offres et de choisir une évolution du sous-marin en service dans la Marine allemande dans le cadre d'une coopération opérationnelle et industrielle renforcée, risque de faire t'ches d'huile en Europe... La France est en danger.

https://www.latribune.fr/entreprises-finance/industrie/aeronautique-defense/cooperations-dans-l-armement-la-france-peut-elle-vraiment-faire-confiance-a-l-allemagne-1-3-795987.html

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  • Vital Signs: Second Annual Study Reveals ‘C’ Average for Defense Industrial Base

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While passing, the “C” grade reflects a business environment that is characterized by contrasting areas of concern and confidence. It also reflects the state in which the defense industrial base entered the COVID-19 pandemic, which dramatically disrupted the daily lives of every American and the flow of U.S. commerce. Continued deterioration in industrial security and the availability of skilled labor and materials emerged from the analysis as areas of clear concern. Favorable conditions for competition in the defense contracting market and a rising demand for defense goods and services reflected growth in the U.S. defense budget and increased overseas sales. NDIA intends Vital Signs 2021 to contribute to the debate about national defense acquisition strategy by offering a common set of indicators — “vital signs” — of the defense industrial base partners that give the men and women in uniform an advantage in all warfare domains. In order to complete this year's Vital Signs, we conducted a months-long study of data related to eight different dimensions that shape the performance capabilities of defense contractors: competition; cost production input; demand for defense goods and services; investment and productivity in the U.S. national innovation system; threats to industrial security; supply chain performance; political and regulatory activity; and industrial surge capacity. We analyzed over 40 publicly available longitudinal statistical indicators, converted each of them into an index score on a scale of 0 to 100, and evaluated three years of scores for each indicator — a running three-year average to control for single-year anomalies. A score of 100 equates to a baseline associated with the Carter-Reagan buildup of 1979-1986 or, if corresponding data is not available, a more recent peak value. With the exception of our Vital Signs 2021 member survey, which was fielded in August 2020, our datasets are lagging indicators collected before the nationwide lockdowns that occurred in March 2020 at the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic. These lagging indicators provide insights into how the defense industrial base entered the pandemic which may give future policymakers a baseline to evaluate the defense industrial base's ability to cope with disruptions due to a national crisis. Vital Signs 2021 reveals a defense industrial base that entered the COVID-19 pandemic in a weakened state. As noted, with the exception of data from our August 2020 Vital Signs 2021 member survey, most data were published before the disruptions caused by the nationwide COVID-19 lockdowns and the concomitant overseas actions impacting certain supply chains. The final “grades” are based solely on data from before the COVID-19 pandemic. Six conditions earned composite scores lower than 80, and four earned scores lower than 70, which we consider failing grades — the same as last year's report. These scores suggest that the defense industrial base is continuing to face multiple challenges to its ability to thrive. Industrial security scored the lowest among the eight dimensions with a 56 for 2020. Industrial security has gained prominence as massive data breaches and brazen acts of economic espionage by state and nonstate actors plagued defense contractors in recent years. To assess industrial security conditions, we analyzed indicators of threats to information security and to intellectual property rights. The score incorporates MITRE's annual average of the threat severity of the new cyber vulnerabilities, which improved slightly from the 2018 score of 17 to a similarly dismal score of 18, in 2020. In contrast, threats to IP rights scored 100 out of 100 for 2019 as the number of new FBI cases into IP rights violations steadily declined since reaching an all-time high in 2011. Defense industry production inputs also scored poorly in 2020 with a score of 68, a steady score since 2018. Major production inputs include skilled labor, intermediate goods and services, and raw materials used to manufacture or develop end-products and services for defense consumption. Our estimate of the size of the defense industry workforce, currently about 1.1 million people, falls substantially below its mid-1980s peak size of 3.2 million. The indicators for security clearance processing also contributed to the low overall score for production inputs as backlogs have improved but continue to persist. The competitive environment and the state of demand for defense goods and services were areas of confidence. 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The high score for demand is a result of the recent increase in contract obligations issued by the department. Total contract obligations grew from $329 billion in fiscal year 2017, to $394 billion in 2019, a 20 percent increase. Foreign military sales also grew by nearly 20 percent over the same time period. Other takeaways: Innovation conditions within the defense industrial base received a score of 71 for 2020, two points down from its 2018 score. Notably, the U.S. share of global investment in research and development was only 28 percent, down from a peak of 38 percent in 2001. In early 2020, before the pandemic took hold, the percentage of Americans that thought the United States was spending “too little” on national defense was nearly half as many as in 2018, the largest two-year drop since 1983, which may indicate a decrease in the American public's appetite for major increases in military spending. Acquisition reform and budget stability, two of NDIA's strategic priorities, continue to be top of mind for the defense industrial base. In the survey, when asked what the most important thing the government can do to help the defense industrial base, respondents said that streamlining the acquisition process (35 percent) and budget stability (nearly 32 percent) were the most important. When asked what conditions would limit their firm's willingness or ability to devote larger amounts of productive capacity to military production, 48 percent of respondents said uncertain prospects of continuing volumes of business was a moderate deterrent and 41.5 percent of respondents said that the burden of government paperwork was a moderate deterrent. Both findings underscore the continued importance of reforming the acquisition process and the need for budget stability. The capacity of the defense industrial base to grow its output and fulfill a surge in military demand stands as a key test of its health and readiness. Productive capacity and surge readiness earned a score of 66 for 2020, a 15-point decrease from 2019. Declines in output efficiency contributed to the declining trend. Productive capacity is baselined against the defense buildup that began under the Carter administration and accelerated through the Reagan administration. The Carter-Reagan Era buildup involved a 31 percent surge in Defense Department expenditures. The health and readiness of the DIB poses a challenge to the acquisition community. With the growing expectation for the defense industrial base to meet the challenges faced during an era of great power competition, Vital Signs 2021 highlights several hurdles that the base must overcome coming out of the COVID-19 pandemic. The overall health grade of “C” suggests a satisfactory ability to meet current industrial requirements. Our full report will release to the public at the end of January. We hope that Vital Signs 2021 will drive policy debates in the coming legislative policy cycle and inform the discussions and actions that lead to an improved grade for Vital Signs 2022 and beyond. Wesley Hallman is vice president of strategy and policy, and Nick Jones director of regulatory policy at NDIA. https://www.nationaldefensemagazine.org/articles/2021/2/1/second-annual-study-reveals-c-average-for-defense-industrial-base

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